Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2018-11-15
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2018-11-09:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20740 |
6510 |
654 |
296 |
81 |
21 |
44 |
0 |
| OW |
7 |
146 |
238 |
204 |
106 |
49 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
43 |
130 |
194 |
148 |
107 |
9 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
16 |
77 |
70 |
250 |
108 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
12 |
16 |
37 |
76 |
312 |
480 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
22 |
40 |
316 |
3822 |
2752 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2018-11-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20898 |
6267 |
469 |
221 |
208 |
53 |
24 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
132 |
182 |
156 |
128 |
56 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
22 |
82 |
106 |
204 |
171 |
39 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
14 |
36 |
88 |
205 |
88 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
5 |
20 |
32 |
58 |
262 |
342 |
30 |
| VCDI |
0 |
1 |
9 |
38 |
77 |
219 |
3403 |
3790 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2018-11-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19839 |
6578 |
544 |
233 |
119 |
59 |
47 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
238 |
179 |
148 |
109 |
95 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
34 |
99 |
140 |
229 |
191 |
20 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
24 |
57 |
131 |
235 |
58 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
28 |
27 |
58 |
252 |
260 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
28 |
46 |
251 |
3813 |
3937 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19839 |
6651 |
570 |
235 |
123 |
70 |
45 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
163 |
155 |
131 |
97 |
81 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
37 |
95 |
145 |
195 |
185 |
18 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
28 |
66 |
163 |
235 |
67 |
5 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
29 |
28 |
68 |
251 |
256 |
33 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
28 |
46 |
261 |
3809 |
3930 |
|
Date: 2018-11-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19620 |
6685 |
341 |
247 |
176 |
53 |
109 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
152 |
162 |
204 |
139 |
112 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
12 |
80 |
75 |
148 |
232 |
45 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
32 |
90 |
211 |
148 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
63 |
301 |
421 |
22 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
62 |
795 |
4265 |
3101 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19620 |
6511 |
292 |
237 |
157 |
70 |
117 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
199 |
99 |
92 |
93 |
60 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
116 |
129 |
126 |
127 |
139 |
38 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
22 |
56 |
74 |
120 |
208 |
85 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
18 |
40 |
81 |
287 |
348 |
30 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
100 |
940 |
4405 |
3093 |
|
Date: 2018-11-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
17942 |
6891 |
850 |
361 |
219 |
88 |
89 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
53 |
153 |
150 |
151 |
86 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
14 |
87 |
109 |
191 |
303 |
30 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
37 |
89 |
79 |
318 |
72 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
65 |
46 |
267 |
306 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
65 |
96 |
369 |
4751 |
3787 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
17942 |
6806 |
835 |
341 |
235 |
129 |
90 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
112 |
107 |
125 |
117 |
82 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
31 |
92 |
105 |
186 |
239 |
36 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
63 |
71 |
71 |
242 |
84 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
32 |
90 |
52 |
310 |
322 |
27 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
107 |
121 |
429 |
4717 |
3786 |
|
Date: 2018-11-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
17918 |
6264 |
888 |
611 |
201 |
105 |
60 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
81 |
102 |
149 |
114 |
87 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
28 |
66 |
147 |
125 |
203 |
63 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
36 |
102 |
92 |
147 |
251 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
76 |
108 |
175 |
446 |
79 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
45 |
119 |
388 |
5272 |
3595 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
17918 |
6139 |
814 |
577 |
211 |
143 |
63 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
132 |
86 |
109 |
79 |
51 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
73 |
104 |
144 |
118 |
143 |
38 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
25 |
60 |
118 |
81 |
189 |
153 |
9 |
| CDI |
0 |
14 |
28 |
91 |
97 |
139 |
387 |
39 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91 |
173 |
440 |
5443 |
3627 |
|
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