Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2015-10-22
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2015-10-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20925 |
6985 |
586 |
273 |
214 |
125 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
298 |
232 |
78 |
85 |
62 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
91 |
145 |
104 |
57 |
119 |
34 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
70 |
67 |
57 |
108 |
36 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
26 |
73 |
55 |
173 |
138 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
54 |
228 |
3249 |
2304 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2015-10-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20446 |
6977 |
732 |
206 |
108 |
81 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
116 |
231 |
146 |
76 |
43 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
176 |
185 |
228 |
84 |
20 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
25 |
64 |
166 |
185 |
29 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
135 |
347 |
243 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
162 |
2973 |
2836 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2015-10-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20305 |
6748 |
611 |
191 |
93 |
95 |
35 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
252 |
195 |
81 |
53 |
58 |
18 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
95 |
170 |
121 |
125 |
111 |
57 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
80 |
85 |
93 |
164 |
92 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
11 |
53 |
70 |
161 |
398 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
13 |
194 |
3126 |
3100 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20305 |
6800 |
645 |
197 |
103 |
103 |
31 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
222 |
169 |
84 |
44 |
63 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
75 |
177 |
120 |
117 |
92 |
60 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
4 |
65 |
84 |
105 |
160 |
103 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
46 |
65 |
177 |
367 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
188 |
3143 |
3100 |
|
Date: 2015-10-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20753 |
5976 |
943 |
359 |
191 |
105 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
6 |
74 |
155 |
101 |
77 |
74 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
8 |
31 |
79 |
87 |
92 |
125 |
38 |
0 |
| ODI |
11 |
22 |
26 |
29 |
78 |
231 |
43 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
5 |
25 |
33 |
85 |
257 |
145 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
18 |
74 |
652 |
3473 |
2555 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20753 |
5729 |
869 |
235 |
105 |
109 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
6 |
123 |
141 |
122 |
47 |
34 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
8 |
109 |
75 |
136 |
126 |
166 |
10 |
0 |
| ODI |
7 |
49 |
45 |
63 |
130 |
178 |
39 |
0 |
| CDI |
4 |
49 |
40 |
16 |
69 |
233 |
82 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
49 |
68 |
55 |
120 |
724 |
3569 |
2555 |
|
Date: 2015-10-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20935 |
6028 |
256 |
224 |
155 |
124 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
24 |
215 |
105 |
98 |
109 |
72 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
21 |
187 |
46 |
81 |
115 |
104 |
40 |
0 |
| ODI |
6 |
50 |
22 |
28 |
86 |
131 |
45 |
0 |
| CDI |
3 |
22 |
16 |
28 |
90 |
240 |
116 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
8 |
16 |
44 |
125 |
569 |
3590 |
2878 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20948 |
5969 |
209 |
157 |
142 |
135 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
17 |
184 |
89 |
84 |
42 |
48 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
10 |
192 |
64 |
124 |
110 |
111 |
22 |
0 |
| ODI |
7 |
79 |
41 |
51 |
147 |
159 |
51 |
0 |
| CDI |
6 |
52 |
29 |
23 |
83 |
185 |
99 |
0 |
| VCDI |
1 |
34 |
29 |
64 |
156 |
602 |
3628 |
2878 |
|
Date: 2015-10-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19594 |
5868 |
989 |
350 |
105 |
122 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
151 |
174 |
195 |
198 |
53 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
89 |
60 |
151 |
188 |
170 |
45 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
51 |
93 |
68 |
71 |
150 |
37 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
19 |
52 |
50 |
243 |
146 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
30 |
103 |
859 |
4448 |
2113 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
19594 |
6022 |
969 |
299 |
143 |
185 |
18 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
90 |
198 |
199 |
75 |
76 |
11 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
40 |
116 |
157 |
160 |
162 |
48 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
44 |
145 |
189 |
195 |
87 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
12 |
39 |
70 |
254 |
132 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
78 |
725 |
4403 |
2113 |
|
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