Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1527 4742 305 183 0 0 0 0
OW 0 205 265 622 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 1627 274 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 4057 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 966 11849 416 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2127 7375 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1527 4223 252 202 0 0 0 0
OW 0 629 203 470 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 139 1503 568 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 386 3445 2032 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1266 9066 955 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2984 6777 91

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1076 855 51 42 11 0 0 0
OW 0 12 3 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 25 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 6 10 32 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 155 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 61 662 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1076 841 48 44 11 0 0 0
OW 0 22 5 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 25 1 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 7 16 51 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 115 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 14 62 298 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4484 2802 139 99 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 93 247 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 587 107 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 548 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 170 415 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 52 104 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4484 2717 111 122 1 0 0 0
OW 0 86 70 173 13 2 0 0
VODI 0 34 40 354 71 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 199 255 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 157 463 357 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 74 96 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4461 1189 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4461 1189 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6086 839 12 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 25 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 103 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 130 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6086 799 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 50 27 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 109 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 99 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1394 1598 52 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 73 77 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 278 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 812 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 163 757 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1394 1538 38 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 47 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 41 196 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 161 592 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 385 748 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4679 1518 20 18 1 0 0 0
OW 0 3 9 29 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4679 1496 28 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 1 43 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 0 14 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11106 225 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11106 225 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6548 3207 209 390 61 0 0 0
OW 0 14 32 95 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 162 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 441 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 221 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6548 3221 228 481 200 0 0 0
OW 0 0 13 78 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 91 131 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 213 130 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 123 109 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12323 663 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12323 663 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5417 285 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5417 278 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8585 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8585 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 145 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 145 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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