Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95886 3852 262 213 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 91 344 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 18 468 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 365 1200 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 563 3148 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2241 133 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95436 4176 206 238 0 0 0 0
OW 0 89 98 320 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 43 405 86 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 400 1090 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 656 2258 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 2958 396 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95665 3872 232 405 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 82 318 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 487 188 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 136 1448 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 284 3426 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2318 129 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94999 4030 260 499 137 0 0 0
OW 0 56 77 188 155 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 18 319 268 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 1409 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 439 2900 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2779 389 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94999 4070 285 528 200 0 0 0
OW 0 17 55 169 145 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 283 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 1292 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 509 3043 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2635 389 0

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95129 4055 204 346 83 0 0 0
OW 0 62 84 237 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 12 370 189 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 986 297 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 275 2671 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2728 1103 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95129 4099 233 398 133 0 0 0
OW 0 19 54 210 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 319 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 188 875 282 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 363 2758 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2656 1102 0

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93880 4978 292 444 61 0 0 0
OW 0 28 65 191 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 345 160 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 792 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 228 3742 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1305 2192 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93880 4984 308 529 200 0 0 0
OW 0 22 48 181 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 256 209 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 516 426 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 295 2434 305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2226 2080 0

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94843 4030 237 340 56 0 0 0
OW 0 49 75 205 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 19 319 142 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 136 540 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 387 2604 505 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2321 2170 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94843 4061 261 445 140 0 0 0
OW 0 21 56 187 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 14 269 167 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 468 282 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 318 1868 813 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2835 1857 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94221 4320 259 501 74 0 0 0
OW 0 27 47 229 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 17 205 246 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 503 77 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 437 1597 361 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1423 4223 129
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94221 4306 261 601 184 0 0 0
OW 0 37 33 150 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 29 196 189 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 438 128 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 383 1659 695 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1311 3884 129


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