Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-08-10

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 54 2279 143 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 182 285 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 1938 350 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 210 6984 327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 1248 11664 497 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 854 6927 2829
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 54 1576 80 131 6 0 0 0
OW 0 571 71 172 74 6 0 0
VODI 0 190 177 1042 382 106 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1135 4769 1770 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 3356 10144 1562 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 822 5798 2824

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 698 73 197 4 0 0 0
OW 0 27 12 163 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 423 104 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 206 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 178 565 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 15 34 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 255 690 76 286 19 0 0 0
OW 0 23 2 214 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 210 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 164 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 227 589 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 83 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 864 3259 224 82 0 0 0 0
OW 0 105 222 405 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 1833 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 2127 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 128 461 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 864 3195 250 265 0 0 0 0
OW 0 155 181 752 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 20 1221 565 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 168 1460 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 372 361 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1755 2955 269 129 6 0 0 0
OW 0 26 154 203 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 147 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1755 2744 206 134 15 0 0 0
OW 0 169 144 77 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 73 216 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1143 3154 150 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 233 468 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1640 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 238 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1143 2555 81 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 399 174 318 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 128 1096 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 704 282 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1393 1546 50 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 56 89 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 164 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 572 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 1195 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1393 1550 92 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 14 123 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 168 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 423 762 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 103 465 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3197 2145 97 131 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 22 197 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 165 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 239 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 38 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3197 2134 95 200 2 0 0 0
OW 0 15 24 197 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 96 170 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 85 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10260 1066 3 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10260 1066 3 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7412 2461 128 88 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 75 351 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 564 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 250 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 100 60 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7412 2400 99 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 78 85 417 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 20 363 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 139 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 150 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4996 596 28 93 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 36 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4996 596 28 117 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 17 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7586 767 26 39 5 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 53 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7586 769 29 66 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 49 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 53 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 147 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 147 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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