Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8842 7509 426 705 121 6 0 0
OW 0 91 165 1738 218 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 2 3112 2556 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 6300 694 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1924 7796 1594 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1531 343 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9406 7425 509 878 109 3 0 0
OW 0 173 235 2214 253 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 7 2449 2969 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 4883 1429 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1334 6416 2601 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 783 1647 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9765 7910 610 821 116 3 0 0
OW 0 66 161 1302 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 3365 1567 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 6222 280 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 859 5472 217 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 20 375 3193 3215
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9609 8573 689 841 87 0 0 0
OW 0 64 205 1592 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 3501 1514 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 5339 232 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 1286 3982 1235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 41 597 3774 2401
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9609 8560 724 1029 111 0 0 0
OW 0 77 156 1559 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 15 3179 1543 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 266 5217 238 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 1368 3955 1210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 39 618 3799 2401

Date: 2023-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10278 8506 579 934 46 0 0 0
OW 0 223 190 1753 174 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 12 2579 2173 97 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 4290 747 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 913 3518 2684 98
VCDI 0 0 0 2 19 1499 4040 375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10278 8592 624 1132 62 0 0 0
OW 0 142 144 1590 344 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 13 2484 2140 105 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 4126 688 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 924 3550 2626 89
VCDI 0 0 0 2 19 1518 4098 384

Date: 2023-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10890 8379 775 885 107 0 0 0
OW 0 93 182 1097 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 3643 482 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 4788 220 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 541 6798 277 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 19 691 4437 1296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10890 8339 780 1465 154 0 0 0
OW 0 130 166 1813 206 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 2367 2060 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 3035 1404 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 551 4882 1772 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 36 1414 2942 1296

Date: 2023-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10709 9409 650 825 38 0 0 0
OW 0 130 278 1297 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 9 3201 792 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 184 4267 165 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 1210 5298 1170 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 854 3231 1991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10709 9356 731 1551 49 0 0 0
OW 0 181 189 1727 242 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 17 2128 2124 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 100 3311 861 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 637 4688 1679 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 54 757 2722 1991

Date: 2023-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12077 8577 536 691 52 0 0 0
OW 0 253 421 1417 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 52 2986 637 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 555 3778 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1593 5439 737 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 594 3974 1146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12077 8581 730 1608 70 0 0 0
OW 0 227 223 1627 228 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 56 2239 1685 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 175 3308 513 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 847 5192 2006 42
VCDI 0 0 0 5 43 444 2705 1105


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