Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-07-06

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 21 13 6 4 0 0 0
OW 0 2 6 25 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 99 28 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 125 1281 146 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 2441 15468 452 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 164 10784 5776 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 16 12 9 9 0 0 0
OW 0 5 4 35 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 37 46 4 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 124 70 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 166 2835 8732 587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 903 17593 5633 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 288 88 2 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 10 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 20 116 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 222 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 345 1359 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 367 136 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 288 82 2 13 0 1 0 0
OW 0 6 0 9 46 7 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 19 124 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 129 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 303 1012 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 132 647 130 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1303 60 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 24 134 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 233 162 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 2468 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2433 2944 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1223 40 86 1 0 0 0
OW 0 62 13 81 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 32 137 305 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 1076 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 3642 1676 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1294 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 167 1063 74 50 0 0 0 0
OW 2 1 37 132 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 269 186 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 1430 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 540 1485 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 167 1042 69 66 2 0 0 0
OW 2 22 32 138 61 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 173 293 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 874 288 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 928 1290 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 440 71 62 6 0 0 0
OW 0 7 45 161 39 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 248 298 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 2454 278 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 539 2559 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 374 64 120 53 1 0 0
OW 0 71 31 121 184 43 0 0
VODI 0 2 21 206 1025 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 1066 638 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1008 2115 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 539 193 182 3 0 0 0
OW 0 8 55 368 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 532 256 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 1035 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 199 1559 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 230 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 463 152 230 20 0 0 0
OW 0 80 77 396 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 19 422 374 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 521 148 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 538 1409 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 231 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1262 1881 218 193 36 0 0 0
OW 0 30 92 327 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 7 353 214 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 7 54 649 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 108 601 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 67 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1262 1644 156 212 48 0 0 0
OW 0 186 101 311 92 9 0 0
VODI 0 72 50 310 262 34 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 55 449 91 0 0
CDI 0 3 12 51 201 524 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9487 1664 43 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 4 34 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9487 1660 41 23 1 0 0 0
OW 0 4 5 38 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 27 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6326 2554 150 253 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1 22 207 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 391 232 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 898 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 126 409 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6326 2554 157 344 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1 15 293 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 207 455 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 456 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 249 414 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8849 3620 164 273 79 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8849 3611 162 264 82 0 0 0
OW 0 9 2 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 59 2412 290 564 101 1 0 0
OW 0 7 25 247 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 820 559 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 524 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 59 2396 276 682 156 1 0 0
OW 0 23 30 456 303 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 470 550 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 259 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4639 3234 56 27 34 3 0 0
OW 0 2 5 23 4 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 17 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 71 52 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 79 217 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4639 3228 44 27 38 10 0 0
OW 0 7 16 12 6 17 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 24 26 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 72 98 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 63 105 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18261 1754 52 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18261 1754 52 98 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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