Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-06-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2168 442 1196 240 0 0 0
OW 0 73 51 495 394 12 0 0
VODI 0 33 14 408 854 95 0 0
ODI 0 22 11 154 1092 260 5 0
CDI 0 35 20 88 1718 2687 685 28
VCDI 0 3 11 61 431 1922 16286 13872
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2333 487 1349 306 0 0 0
OW 0 162 45 500 465 29 0 0
VODI 0 67 58 354 924 167 6 0
ODI 0 49 22 171 948 486 40 0
CDI 0 55 27 101 1265 2512 622 11
VCDI 0 36 17 88 171 1617 13982 16394
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3402 601 1307 390 138 0 0
OW 0 66 35 618 451 169 0 0
VODI 0 39 16 411 1105 263 0 0
ODI 0 31 37 111 1609 661 10 0
CDI 0 3 3 82 512 1563 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 102 3629 18925 9317
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 27 4070 524 1203 508 472 0 0
OW 0 86 55 549 507 243 0 0
VODI 0 40 10 273 937 596 5 0
ODI 0 31 28 102 781 1000 33 0
CDI 0 10 11 141 593 1309 479 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 834 3601 13452 13341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 27 4079 533 1251 569 482 0 0
OW 0 68 47 497 457 247 0 0
VODI 0 47 9 288 1005 651 9 0
ODI 0 30 27 98 721 929 32 0
CDI 0 13 12 135 571 1254 558 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 837 3658 13370 13341

Date: 2023-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53 4361 567 1247 1135 0 0 0
OW 0 105 88 620 827 19 0 0
VODI 0 32 24 408 1327 116 3 0
ODI 0 23 33 103 1251 144 22 0
CDI 0 13 24 157 873 1520 907 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 1275 3140 11840 13540
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53 4375 577 1314 1222 5 0 0
OW 0 87 77 578 770 16 0 0
VODI 0 36 26 384 1424 140 2 0
ODI 0 24 32 103 1147 144 19 0
CDI 0 12 24 157 836 1391 801 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1289 3243 11950 13540

Date: 2023-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62 4862 564 1512 858 0 0 0
OW 1 85 86 708 456 10 0 0
VODI 0 24 42 721 1251 4 3 0
ODI 0 3 9 149 1945 56 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 868 3836 289 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 961 4003 9691 12763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62 4685 537 1741 1221 6 0 0
OW 1 129 56 630 866 11 0 0
VODI 0 75 39 433 1253 18 7 0
ODI 0 54 26 123 864 42 42 0
CDI 0 31 43 173 1016 2033 383 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 1119 5799 9565 12763

Date: 2023-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 5320 588 2012 847 2 0 0
OW 1 72 74 912 634 13 0 0
VODI 0 5 22 567 1326 24 9 0
ODI 0 6 8 116 998 171 20 0
CDI 0 3 4 45 1094 4217 528 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1201 5662 6375 12988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 5023 489 2192 1263 19 0 0
OW 1 160 65 705 814 13 3 0
VODI 0 99 56 375 842 32 24 0
ODI 0 64 36 163 570 90 40 0
CDI 0 60 50 212 1142 2911 515 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 1469 7024 6350 12988

Date: 2023-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86 5831 675 2467 383 13 0 0
OW 2 110 74 1165 479 16 8 0
VODI 0 26 24 479 1172 46 28 0
ODI 0 13 12 94 549 146 66 1
CDI 0 2 3 72 1037 4150 1102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 672 6039 6198 12623
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86 5522 550 3006 751 31 8 0
OW 2 200 77 524 567 8 15 0
VODI 0 147 72 365 606 44 30 0
ODI 0 82 38 156 429 141 75 1
CDI 0 31 50 221 1138 3168 873 0
VCDI 0 0 1 8 801 7018 6401 12623


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