Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 66 11 0 0 0
OW 0 3 10 62 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 25 71 176 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 8 94 268 241 11 0
CDI 0 42 14 165 667 989 503 3
VCDI 0 10 33 219 732 3161 14488 23707
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 71 7 0 0 0
OW 0 6 13 110 48 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 22 145 310 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 141 407 155 24 0
CDI 0 4 5 199 914 934 333 3
VCDI 0 38 60 437 3271 5493 12724 19954
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 56 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 56 248 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 39 330 260 33 3 0
ODI 0 7 16 237 424 226 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 199 561 1337 493 26
VCDI 0 0 0 34 420 3835 17867 18834
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 142 72 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 42 241 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 61 294 308 66 0 0
ODI 0 15 23 250 373 298 17 0
CDI 0 15 3 136 478 1272 486 5
VCDI 0 4 2 74 465 2941 13432 24063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 132 66 121 4 0 0 0
OW 0 67 41 195 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 66 319 299 57 0 0
ODI 0 16 24 240 379 282 14 0
CDI 0 18 4 150 479 1246 427 6
VCDI 0 3 2 70 461 2992 13494 24062

Date: 2023-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 156 57 38 4 0 0 0
OW 0 125 60 246 106 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 82 390 342 78 5 0
ODI 0 28 40 285 374 328 47 0
CDI 0 13 13 215 428 894 822 0
VCDI 0 5 1 87 660 3637 22885 13325
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 201 70 77 12 0 0 0
OW 0 74 43 213 88 4 0 0
VODI 0 88 78 360 359 73 5 0
ODI 0 34 39 304 372 250 51 0
CDI 0 15 22 192 398 932 683 0
VCDI 0 5 1 115 685 3678 23020 13325

Date: 2023-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 472 149 94 5 0 0 0
OW 0 40 95 451 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 22 508 382 19 1 0
ODI 0 3 0 163 728 184 14 0
CDI 0 8 1 126 588 1106 171 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 515 3176 20954 15819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 261 56 101 24 0 0 0
OW 0 120 59 260 149 23 0 0
VODI 0 100 90 328 393 75 7 0
ODI 0 31 42 296 386 337 42 0
CDI 0 18 19 242 413 679 911 3
VCDI 0 6 1 117 909 3371 20180 15817

Date: 2023-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 597 226 253 7 0 0 0
OW 0 80 61 505 47 4 0 0
VODI 0 58 26 439 455 35 2 0
ODI 0 26 11 151 578 137 9 0
CDI 0 11 6 159 526 956 279 3
VCDI 0 8 3 31 280 1743 13044 25110
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 292 97 242 55 6 0 0
OW 0 177 40 276 195 12 0 0
VODI 0 159 98 367 452 95 12 0
ODI 0 77 53 240 351 380 39 0
CDI 0 71 36 267 300 574 910 81
VCDI 0 4 9 146 540 1808 12373 25032

Date: 2023-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 491 202 388 19 1 0 0
OW 0 110 88 443 163 11 0 0
VODI 0 65 39 336 568 74 4 0
ODI 0 33 22 163 472 285 49 0
CDI 0 18 12 231 563 1292 527 3
VCDI 0 21 9 120 424 3211 11649 23760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 218 122 312 161 23 0 0
OW 0 170 55 311 287 85 1 0
VODI 0 179 71 319 407 223 14 0
ODI 0 83 67 187 332 400 93 0
CDI 0 53 37 316 403 752 827 12
VCDI 0 35 20 236 619 3391 11294 23751


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