Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-07-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 129 1624 33 138 0 0 0 0
OW 0 69 20 242 59 2 0 0
VODI 0 15 6 289 315 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 50 1828 245 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 748 12279 2810 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5666 9334 980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 129 1645 43 318 139 1 0 0
OW 0 55 14 225 286 24 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 131 564 100 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 45 753 1281 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1208 10215 3191 62
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6571 8953 933

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 223 10 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 58 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 29 56 2 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 16 220 10 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 34 658 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 245 1031 278 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 223 10 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 45 26 1 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 32 100 4 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 14 148 10 0 0
CDI 0 9 0 32 504 129 0 0
VCDI 0 2 0 8 404 1068 278 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 596 17 96 5 0 0 0
OW 0 33 5 100 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 315 197 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 259 1351 121 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 6 2579 1500 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 2341 416 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 571 13 100 22 0 0 0
OW 0 40 8 119 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 2 159 261 67 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 195 408 154 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 200 3192 518 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 181 3223 416 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1172 1805 33 134 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 12 212 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 260 189 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1638 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1172 1804 38 345 51 0 0 0
OW 0 17 7 204 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 57 468 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 767 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 449 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 335 11 92 6 0 0 0
OW 0 13 6 146 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 3 508 569 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 56 2804 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 0 552 1960 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 333 15 161 121 0 0 0
OW 0 12 2 230 210 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 0 298 666 1 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 109 1323 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 4 1655 1935 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 250 2497 55 217 24 0 0 0
OW 0 76 29 262 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 461 207 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 1135 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 250 2422 53 262 29 0 0 0
OW 0 144 30 330 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 353 478 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 798 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 71 3720 91 424 174 17 0 0
OW 0 275 52 606 85 16 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 430 198 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 92 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 24 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 71 3571 87 529 236 43 0 0
OW 0 409 49 505 97 15 0 0
VODI 0 18 8 427 195 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10206 1118 1 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10206 1114 1 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7289 2702 29 250 4 0 0 0
OW 0 40 11 189 31 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 257 211 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 438 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 128 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7289 2691 33 426 81 0 0 0
OW 0 51 7 199 207 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 86 385 74 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 64 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 120 3536 77 518 17 14 0 0
OW 0 52 7 255 41 15 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 240 277 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 585 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 120 3517 78 676 71 27 0 0
OW 0 52 8 209 182 17 0 0
VODI 0 21 0 128 582 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 85 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1472 4126 87 762 70 0 0 0
OW 0 31 8 919 78 19 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 410 194 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 224 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 56 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1472 4135 90 1343 162 23 0 0
OW 0 25 5 621 173 33 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 133 183 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 53 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17382 2320 35 180 17 0 0 0
OW 0 7 8 138 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17382 2309 38 162 20 0 0 0
OW 0 18 5 150 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 45 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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