Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-07-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89461 19986 494 3232 993 241 5 0
OW 2 717 146 2615 1771 134 6 0
VODI 0 118 37 1679 6866 289 19 0
ODI 0 26 7 232 4099 1422 15 0
CDI 0 92 8 184 6145 8309 257 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 3237 20799 12319 1081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90033 20615 486 3450 1071 274 0 0
OW 1 507 143 3127 2342 144 0 0
VODI 0 58 8 1227 6325 326 2 0
ODI 0 14 3 146 2982 2184 12 0
CDI 0 1 2 248 4880 12466 54 0
VCDI 0 2 0 5 3413 25325 5172 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90796 21072 490 3557 693 160 0 0
OW 1 715 166 2591 910 77 0 0
VODI 0 60 22 1996 5091 158 4 0
ODI 0 2 4 241 6442 863 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 7068 18206 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 627 20860 3939 47
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91676 21984 506 3381 599 109 0 0
OW 1 866 139 3021 1157 83 0 0
VODI 0 64 17 2640 4716 166 0 0
ODI 0 26 10 323 4930 1733 0 0
CDI 0 7 1 52 5902 18312 188 0
VCDI 0 9 0 6 770 17425 6229 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91676 22186 522 3987 960 125 0 0
OW 1 627 110 2406 1245 76 0 0
VODI 0 99 30 2647 4264 169 0 0
ODI 0 28 9 352 4980 1650 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 24 5700 18034 228 0
VCDI 0 12 0 7 925 17774 6189 0

Date: 2018-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92012 23412 457 3567 553 96 0 0
OW 0 781 157 3735 1683 92 4 0
VODI 0 39 15 2175 4055 289 0 0
ODI 0 33 8 374 5205 1356 23 0
CDI 0 3 0 263 7494 14188 1814 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 751 14959 7245 207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92012 23471 479 4397 911 116 2 0
OW 0 665 122 2770 1368 82 2 0
VODI 0 101 28 2320 4161 300 0 0
ODI 0 26 8 360 5103 1107 24 0
CDI 0 5 0 267 7182 14048 1851 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1016 15327 7207 207

Date: 2018-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92938 24603 479 2872 318 31 0 0
OW 0 616 159 3127 398 54 0 0
VODI 0 82 18 3235 2443 87 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 408 10348 736 0 0
CDI 0 12 1 40 4583 16252 2831 15
VCDI 0 0 0 3 248 9038 10073 980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92938 24336 499 4392 933 94 0 0
OW 0 831 136 2837 1501 99 0 0
VODI 0 95 17 1846 3927 359 0 0
ODI 0 50 10 363 4381 1922 46 0
CDI 0 12 1 236 7011 12862 3211 62
VCDI 0 3 0 11 585 10862 9647 933

Date: 2018-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93794 25567 455 2795 619 74 0 0
OW 2 711 151 2776 809 61 0 0
VODI 0 99 22 2618 3222 134 0 0
ODI 0 12 10 327 8989 1999 1 0
CDI 0 6 0 14 4376 14045 4364 1
VCDI 0 1 0 3 577 9909 8205 300
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93791 25094 474 4156 1425 140 0 0
OW 5 1087 120 2362 1722 120 0 0
VODI 0 135 29 1450 3456 403 0 0
ODI 0 73 15 393 4336 2967 48 0
CDI 0 6 0 168 6781 11250 4682 158
VCDI 0 1 0 4 872 11342 7840 143

Date: 2018-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95872 25258 450 2852 375 41 0 0
OW 5 794 121 2605 1035 58 0 0
VODI 0 191 41 1920 4511 196 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 861 7414 3704 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 3999 14661 2761 0
VCDI 0 2 1 47 412 8402 8292 98
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95852 24856 478 4321 1554 101 0 0
OW 21 1042 82 1664 1983 145 0 0
VODI 4 209 34 1051 3134 575 1 0
ODI 0 139 22 507 4474 4245 48 0
CDI 0 2 3 752 5900 12387 3746 0
VCDI 0 2 1 46 701 9609 7259 98


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