Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-06-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 1267 6 30 7 0 0 0
OW 0 70 12 67 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 123 105 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 511 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 211 1939 534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2605 13414 15881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 1216 10 57 33 0 0 0
OW 0 73 4 47 50 17 0 0
VODI 0 44 6 71 138 36 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 58 357 91 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 286 1609 1430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2823 12507 15881

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 123 11 50 10 0 0 0
OW 0 6 3 24 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 14 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 154 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1149 555 899 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 119 10 47 10 0 0 0
OW 0 10 4 28 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 9 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 9 34 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 146 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1176 553 760 2

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 130 28 217 61 0 0 0
OW 0 54 1 55 43 1 0 0
VODI 0 37 5 62 45 3 0 0
ODI 0 26 6 38 42 14 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 87 494 550 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 2706 4919 267
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 93 27 222 96 6 0 0
OW 0 30 2 45 35 8 0 0
VODI 0 43 0 22 31 20 0 0
ODI 0 42 2 29 22 24 8 0
CDI 0 46 12 107 276 440 205 7
VCDI 0 0 0 34 301 2776 4711 260

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 164 1237 10 41 1 0 0 0
OW 17 75 28 105 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 5 132 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 216 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 232 546 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 340 1924 324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 165 1216 13 57 4 0 0 0
OW 16 72 17 66 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 9 110 126 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 43 144 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 209 368 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 442 1923 324

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 43 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 0 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 1 32 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 58 48 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 263 389 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 335 2406 2723 793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 46 1 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 0 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 0 11 6 1 0 0
ODI 0 16 1 20 19 5 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 114 210 317 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 417 2478 2723 793

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1281 46 253 97 0 0 0
OW 0 30 20 168 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 138 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1132 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 277 1224 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 264 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1182 45 269 107 0 0 0
OW 0 81 10 117 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 10 128 300 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 54 741 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 599 1029 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 444 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 452 14 128 13 0 0 0
OW 0 59 11 308 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 308 544 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 1808 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 136 1889 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 196 186 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 469 16 328 109 0 0 0
OW 0 45 12 215 243 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 184 655 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 1315 240 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 250 1610 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 271 153 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8932 1809 12 25 1 0 0 0
OW 0 15 12 87 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 79 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 65 57 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8932 1806 20 76 18 0 0 0
OW 0 18 4 65 60 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 76 97 20 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 59 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6996 2633 28 181 6 0 0 0
OW 0 7 7 148 25 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 68 156 6 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 268 54 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 510 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 403 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6996 2630 28 232 21 0 0 0
OW 0 10 7 129 76 9 2 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 261 84 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 130 112 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 383 410 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12008 929 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11996 929 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1637 48 184 151 0 5 0
OW 0 24 15 213 64 0 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 154 289 3 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 790 136 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 293 1095 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 163 338 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1629 48 254 207 0 7 0
OW 0 32 12 145 110 4 6 0
VODI 0 0 3 129 391 63 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 350 214 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 528 847 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 269 297 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1017 41 524 141 0 0 0
OW 0 13 6 156 277 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 262 548 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 1418 610 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 1010 1800 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 83 519 14
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1021 42 600 365 6 0 0
OW 0 7 4 111 472 102 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 166 634 446 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 768 818 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 1139 1047 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 89 387 14

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14705 3322 55 527 253 15 0 0
OW 0 45 16 111 76 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 103 180 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 262 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 345 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 42 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14705 3277 54 556 306 23 0 0
OW 0 64 6 87 107 14 0 0
VODI 0 26 15 69 194 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 162 153 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 206 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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