Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-06-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 155 2803 75 507 263 21 0 0
OW 11 283 35 296 354 39 0 0
VODI 0 154 21 347 577 156 34 0
ODI 0 92 16 127 454 346 120 0
CDI 0 81 15 179 547 1319 717 12
VCDI 0 95 9 142 417 1751 15982 17314
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109 2773 110 614 365 46 0 0
OW 10 202 33 353 414 75 10 0
VODI 0 149 32 268 593 162 59 0
ODI 0 100 11 133 413 271 151 2
CDI 0 87 12 187 619 1658 827 10
VCDI 0 82 13 157 479 3426 13334 17517
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123 2755 99 698 333 21 1 0
OW 12 142 34 574 322 51 5 0
VODI 0 56 12 307 879 78 5 0
ODI 0 25 4 94 765 448 37 3
CDI 0 25 10 202 757 4188 801 37
VCDI 0 40 5 63 316 3789 17154 10596
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115 3020 123 919 445 20 0 0
OW 11 159 33 491 502 156 3 0
VODI 0 65 16 236 648 402 18 0
ODI 0 28 3 174 594 685 232 0
CDI 0 43 7 191 668 3660 1103 108
VCDI 0 34 5 126 758 5169 11496 13400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115 3002 122 1008 489 36 0 0
OW 11 170 33 389 453 155 3 0
VODI 0 69 17 249 658 361 30 0
ODI 0 31 3 182 604 706 178 0
CDI 0 61 7 189 660 3610 1201 105
VCDI 0 16 5 120 751 5224 11440 13403

Date: 2018-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 143 3115 152 1153 731 41 3 0
OW 16 168 35 356 685 99 6 0
VODI 0 79 13 292 843 360 22 0
ODI 0 47 3 164 607 1137 114 0
CDI 0 50 14 233 738 3824 772 0
VCDI 0 3 4 208 974 4619 11611 12432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 143 3100 153 1221 796 69 3 0
OW 16 169 33 264 612 67 6 0
VODI 0 92 13 333 873 328 22 0
ODI 0 48 4 155 584 1160 114 0
CDI 0 50 14 221 737 3800 706 0
VCDI 0 3 4 212 976 4656 11677 12432

Date: 2018-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 164 3357 126 1147 516 15 5 0
OW 17 153 44 410 453 13 4 0
VODI 0 42 10 506 880 30 7 0
ODI 0 26 6 128 1911 794 10 0
CDI 0 7 3 156 1827 3741 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1225 4213 13162 10477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 165 3285 129 1257 871 35 7 0
OW 16 138 32 300 693 127 6 0
VODI 0 70 10 344 964 533 14 0
ODI 0 46 6 181 999 1108 65 0
CDI 0 46 12 231 1742 2532 730 7
VCDI 0 0 0 36 1543 4471 12645 10470

Date: 2018-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 233 3752 139 1189 734 32 2 0
OW 17 146 53 464 448 124 2 0
VODI 0 33 15 309 860 481 4 0
ODI 0 24 7 105 1265 2330 30 0
CDI 0 13 2 163 930 2572 379 12
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1024 5470 12245 10141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 237 3540 135 1221 1017 156 4 0
OW 13 217 38 270 425 549 6 0
VODI 0 110 20 337 682 957 35 0
ODI 0 52 10 153 935 1063 78 0
CDI 0 33 10 203 964 2576 612 100
VCDI 0 16 3 163 1238 5708 11927 10053

Date: 2018-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 240 4140 149 1367 714 1 6 0
OW 9 114 43 503 669 32 2 0
VODI 0 45 10 242 1401 771 10 0
ODI 0 23 7 94 1000 1978 56 0
CDI 0 20 4 175 647 1994 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 1462 5558 9345 12598
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 240 3913 140 1362 1177 91 11 0
OW 9 213 30 322 577 522 8 0
VODI 0 109 20 321 890 837 23 0
ODI 0 53 12 154 939 1045 67 0
CDI 0 33 7 181 747 2350 764 9
VCDI 0 21 4 61 1563 5489 8963 12589


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