Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-06-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79772 16664 253 1702 624 42 0 0
OW 54 711 90 945 596 76 6 0
VODI 0 553 62 822 1437 315 53 0
ODI 0 348 42 505 1371 1071 223 0
CDI 0 355 56 608 2788 4692 1754 14
VCDI 0 139 17 223 968 8463 34950 23684
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79798 17037 314 1787 707 55 0 0
OW 51 661 76 986 754 134 16 0
VODI 0 582 71 680 1571 357 79 0
ODI 0 389 45 579 1309 1085 372 2
CDI 0 273 43 800 3300 5164 2302 32
VCDI 0 87 15 240 1256 6977 26017 31045
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80110 17984 305 1809 609 29 1 0
OW 50 601 109 1293 598 65 6 0
VODI 0 150 33 1110 1943 143 8 0
ODI 0 50 18 427 2998 882 58 3
CDI 0 27 12 429 3617 9577 1605 49
VCDI 0 51 5 71 496 9400 30963 19354
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81453 17553 306 1895 785 21 0 0
OW 39 538 117 1291 887 166 4 0
VODI 1 188 41 911 2146 502 23 0
ODI 0 52 15 454 2769 1713 261 0
CDI 0 44 8 398 2643 9476 2506 108
VCDI 0 43 5 136 1177 11882 24703 19788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81457 17535 313 2154 872 37 0 0
OW 35 534 92 1043 850 160 4 0
VODI 1 199 58 885 2111 494 35 0
ODI 0 60 16 470 2621 1806 203 0
CDI 0 65 8 403 2760 9347 2513 105
VCDI 0 25 5 130 1193 11916 24742 19791

Date: 2018-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82358 17317 335 2085 1074 42 3 0
OW 40 539 115 1362 1126 107 13 0
VODI 2 232 46 1086 2327 515 39 0
ODI 0 87 11 541 3291 1954 205 0
CDI 0 56 19 388 3110 8722 2645 0
VCDI 0 3 4 208 1911 10055 19523 23552
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82361 17301 344 2364 1180 70 3 0
OW 39 529 98 1020 1082 75 11 0
VODI 0 254 48 1147 2293 561 40 0
ODI 0 90 17 553 3194 1923 199 0
CDI 0 57 19 374 3168 8524 2651 0
VCDI 0 3 4 212 1922 10242 19524 23552

Date: 2018-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84651 15880 300 2165 741 15 5 0
OW 69 433 131 1457 665 13 5 0
VODI 16 78 26 1422 2367 53 10 0
ODI 0 31 10 263 6574 1102 31 0
CDI 0 7 3 229 3021 10600 1118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1562 9345 25367 17281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84643 15633 314 2705 1276 35 7 0
OW 80 457 82 1068 1306 160 8 0
VODI 13 213 45 936 2821 842 63 0
ODI 0 74 13 401 4018 1885 186 0
CDI 0 52 16 385 3545 8061 2811 7
VCDI 0 0 0 43 1964 10145 23461 17274

Date: 2018-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84270 17108 337 2557 964 79 2 0
OW 57 359 133 1560 986 135 3 0
VODI 11 48 21 877 3472 623 7 0
ODI 0 24 9 226 4050 3743 69 0
CDI 0 13 2 218 1864 8398 2923 12
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1557 9889 22246 18079
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84268 16643 339 2905 1542 204 4 0
OW 62 526 84 969 1289 630 8 0
VODI 8 247 46 824 2738 1470 126 0
ODI 0 80 15 348 3065 2485 376 0
CDI 0 40 15 344 2434 7511 4004 136
VCDI 0 16 3 165 1825 10567 20732 17955

Date: 2018-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85124 17408 344 2650 982 77 6 0
OW 44 436 119 1612 1456 122 3 0
VODI 6 100 31 837 4324 1423 15 0
ODI 0 27 10 228 2583 3788 113 0
CDI 0 20 4 238 1462 7084 3360 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 1742 10455 18728 20066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85131 16897 335 3010 1748 173 11 0
OW 40 564 72 916 1653 638 10 0
VODI 3 328 61 802 2838 1581 104 0
ODI 0 145 25 428 2451 3140 221 0
CDI 0 36 11 337 1948 6847 4697 12
VCDI 0 21 4 93 1911 10570 17182 20054


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