Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-02-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74213 14223 138 584 186 8 0 0
OW 71 436 73 568 228 14 0 0
VODI 0 112 23 530 579 102 1 0
ODI 0 21 9 191 742 165 50 0
CDI 0 5 4 49 630 571 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 477 2411 5767 5815
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72777 14659 175 748 359 40 4 0
OW 66 406 68 449 393 55 0 0
VODI 0 116 33 357 556 185 9 0
ODI 0 20 9 166 449 355 85 0
CDI 0 3 2 39 547 618 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 410 2364 6684 5774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72262 14775 206 855 325 26 0 0
OW 60 236 59 524 374 21 0 0
VODI 0 50 24 353 662 91 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 645 273 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 466 935 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 322 1936 6779 6586
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71912 14771 213 856 371 15 0 0
OW 62 260 46 471 366 44 0 0
VODI 0 50 25 329 732 168 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 99 549 340 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 415 575 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 352 2524 7243 6100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71912 14795 213 910 402 22 0 0
OW 62 229 50 428 385 46 0 0
VODI 0 58 22 330 699 174 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 93 530 335 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 436 563 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 333 2526 7269 6100

Date: 2018-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71644 14994 182 833 355 46 0 0
OW 64 377 65 435 308 100 0 0
VODI 0 119 24 408 534 182 16 0
ODI 0 21 9 169 576 328 56 0
CDI 0 7 1 92 451 530 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 594 2505 8308 4629
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71643 15039 185 882 401 61 0 0
OW 65 335 62 396 304 91 0 0
VODI 0 117 26 381 538 177 10 0
ODI 0 20 8 178 525 295 47 0
CDI 0 7 0 97 426 530 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 624 2537 8327 4629

Date: 2018-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71329 15192 183 765 296 1 0 0
OW 63 442 59 534 342 28 0 0
VODI 0 170 28 424 794 96 5 0
ODI 0 23 21 147 709 243 12 0
CDI 0 1 2 103 545 1051 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 598 3899 7341 3564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71327 15125 185 869 515 34 0 0
OW 65 400 45 368 383 76 7 0
VODI 0 199 26 285 543 175 17 0
ODI 0 76 19 205 438 303 32 0
CDI 0 27 16 147 539 878 65 0
VCDI 0 1 2 114 866 3852 7312 3564

Date: 2018-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72065 14561 171 759 263 0 0 0
OW 62 428 57 449 392 19 0 0
VODI 0 195 31 370 566 73 0 0
ODI 0 77 8 179 604 166 1 0
CDI 0 53 9 107 736 681 26 0
VCDI 0 85 16 125 1110 4341 8163 2152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72064 14310 173 837 448 8 0 0
OW 63 538 46 366 333 32 0 0
VODI 0 208 28 334 597 129 0 0
ODI 0 112 15 164 584 279 5 0
CDI 0 62 6 112 630 870 61 2
VCDI 0 169 24 176 1079 3962 8124 2150

Date: 2018-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71795 14529 165 738 337 0 0 0
OW 63 480 53 399 312 35 0 0
VODI 0 223 35 340 535 166 0 0
ODI 0 83 13 161 473 218 5 0
CDI 0 46 8 138 646 624 74 0
VCDI 0 91 14 153 1144 3574 7342 4088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71795 14046 168 815 614 63 0 0
OW 63 733 47 353 355 106 0 0
VODI 0 340 28 307 525 238 5 0
ODI 0 118 11 161 447 314 41 0
CDI 0 55 16 133 497 800 115 0
VCDI 0 160 18 160 1009 3096 7260 4088


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