Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91454 7355 60 408 77 8 0 0
OW 6 133 13 179 208 21 0 0
VODI 0 32 8 82 303 77 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 26 161 157 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 11 83 275 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 56 2703 3775 1422
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90749 7557 66 376 161 3 0 0
OW 7 307 19 129 97 30 0 0
VODI 0 153 16 136 140 95 0 0
ODI 0 76 9 83 67 128 0 0
CDI 0 50 5 71 51 170 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 85 352 3414 2986 1509
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91404 6880 89 471 304 119 3 0
OW 7 71 12 164 51 42 13 0
VODI 0 27 7 108 195 34 40 0
ODI 0 15 2 43 119 67 44 0
CDI 0 18 2 33 87 136 67 0
VCDI 0 9 2 49 193 3136 3698 1339
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89824 7766 97 624 411 153 0 0
OW 8 76 13 194 65 53 0 0
VODI 0 65 8 148 134 61 0 0
ODI 0 15 4 61 249 57 2 0
CDI 0 5 1 78 87 113 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 249 3472 3806 1109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89824 7760 97 624 414 144 0 0
OW 8 74 10 190 74 59 0 0
VODI 0 70 11 153 133 61 0 0
ODI 0 18 3 54 186 56 2 0
CDI 0 5 2 70 142 111 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 73 246 3478 3814 1109

Date: 2017-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87795 9418 93 618 465 130 0 0
OW 9 121 9 239 98 65 0 0
VODI 0 94 14 167 106 54 3 0
ODI 0 37 7 76 170 34 7 0
CDI 0 6 4 101 158 206 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 333 2963 3987 1435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87795 9391 93 682 478 114 0 0
OW 9 142 9 170 65 70 0 0
VODI 0 95 12 171 141 54 2 0
ODI 0 41 7 76 154 36 7 0
CDI 0 7 6 90 141 134 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 351 3044 3988 1435

Date: 2017-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86974 9445 85 908 709 130 0 0
OW 10 54 17 206 197 120 0 0
VODI 0 22 8 233 254 170 4 0
ODI 0 0 1 58 245 95 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 154 352 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 1888 5289 1350
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86972 9262 76 894 823 253 0 0
OW 12 153 14 122 69 95 1 0
VODI 0 65 9 189 175 91 11 0
ODI 0 30 6 91 182 51 15 0
CDI 0 11 6 96 160 142 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 209 2123 5293 1350

Date: 2017-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87198 8959 106 778 763 0 0 0
OW 16 81 5 208 501 44 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 120 345 115 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 290 197 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 192 348 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 3307 4467 996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87198 8744 91 779 1052 125 0 0
OW 16 168 8 95 227 68 0 0
VODI 0 97 9 134 225 77 0 0
ODI 0 31 4 63 213 91 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 56 247 221 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 156 3429 4464 996

Date: 2017-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86200 10053 78 646 452 58 0 0
OW 17 198 16 162 443 101 0 0
VODI 0 40 16 157 285 158 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 84 256 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 308 211 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 139 3294 4394 1157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86200 9878 76 675 835 299 0 0
OW 17 272 10 108 176 92 0 0
VODI 0 126 19 149 199 91 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 89 219 80 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 303 137 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 151 3252 4394 1157


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