Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96210 4351 56 271 96 0 0 0
OW 0 19 9 107 123 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 58 181 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 105 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 328 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1176 3468 2337
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95687 4532 57 381 143 1 0 0
OW 0 26 2 108 129 10 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 44 191 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 118 95 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 72 295 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 969 3259 2893
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95417 4575 44 243 91 0 0 0
OW 0 38 14 184 133 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 87 194 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 176 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 428 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 518 2993 3743
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95125 4811 45 201 91 0 0 0
OW 0 57 12 167 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 106 196 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 184 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 132 325 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 925 2878 3640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95125 4795 44 209 84 0 0 0
OW 0 67 10 155 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 9 104 204 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 169 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 140 307 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 949 2880 3640

Date: 2017-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95692 4441 32 173 34 0 0 0
OW 0 130 8 110 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 9 140 132 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 46 186 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 183 240 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1957 4369 1066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95692 4426 32 120 32 0 0 0
OW 0 130 6 158 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 11 145 155 7 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 44 178 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 168 198 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2005 4369 1066

Date: 2017-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95602 4933 25 104 29 0 0 0
OW 0 172 19 128 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 175 122 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 226 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 90 519 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2762 3146 892
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95602 4670 19 90 27 0 0 0
OW 0 285 11 48 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 16 147 57 11 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 103 130 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 188 122 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 3178 3165 892

Date: 2017-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94639 5695 46 216 91 0 0 0
OW 0 129 9 149 72 6 0 0
VODI 0 48 11 146 120 21 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 38 168 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 125 398 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 2506 3271 1074
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94639 5523 33 138 46 1 0 0
OW 0 185 17 126 63 5 0 0
VODI 0 115 10 139 105 21 0 0
ODI 0 43 5 94 101 49 0 0
CDI 0 8 3 54 184 166 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 84 2751 3315 1074

Date: 2017-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92222 7512 58 232 126 27 0 0
OW 1 159 25 260 127 33 0 0
VODI 0 7 7 166 172 76 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 219 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 127 411 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1906 4159 899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92182 7413 56 263 62 13 0 0
OW 41 172 15 168 83 22 0 0
VODI 0 86 11 121 177 44 0 0
ODI 0 7 8 86 157 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 233 158 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 2235 4201 899


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