Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57410 19501 6324 2009 312 52 2 0
OW 50 7 22 599 573 48 7 0
VODI 0 0 0 281 797 355 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 682 492 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 912 2006 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 246 3920 7656 4467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59173 18851 4794 2309 710 107 22 0
OW 62 4 25 473 525 200 20 0
VODI 0 0 0 229 647 547 52 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 560 456 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 951 1788 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 299 4795 7126 4081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58246 20206 4397 2609 515 44 0 0
OW 60 7 5 455 585 54 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 226 1072 155 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 985 671 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 858 1774 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 158 3684 7287 4814
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59200 20927 3575 1986 457 69 0 0
OW 60 28 71 542 521 100 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 324 907 411 20 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 623 581 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 561 1575 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 148 2883 7929 5095
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59200 20925 3596 2108 569 81 0 0
OW 60 30 50 435 501 119 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 302 837 416 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 608 566 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 549 1586 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 153 2851 7906 5095

Date: 2017-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61087 19411 3574 1775 446 64 0 0
OW 60 20 166 553 535 166 9 0
VODI 0 1 10 393 809 355 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 148 554 342 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 81 622 1500 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 187 2533 8059 5269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61087 19413 3592 1919 548 85 0 0
OW 60 17 147 428 485 179 8 0
VODI 0 2 11 378 796 310 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 544 377 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 582 1528 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 198 2481 8029 5269

Date: 2017-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60345 20190 3536 1848 369 28 0 0
OW 57 19 83 676 355 52 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 471 823 122 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 1269 369 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 552 2528 131 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 136 3134 7145 4711
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60345 20185 3522 2074 716 127 0 0
OW 57 22 92 474 643 145 20 0
VODI 0 2 5 356 840 275 7 0
ODI 0 1 0 147 458 336 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 628 1860 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 219 3490 7050 4711

Date: 2017-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54903 20585 8693 2145 459 52 0 0
OW 55 6 29 678 473 49 3 0
VODI 0 2 1 420 932 122 46 0
ODI 0 0 0 104 883 241 115 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 803 1922 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 314 3846 6310 4741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54902 20582 8613 2347 968 110 9 0
OW 56 8 96 429 685 100 32 0
VODI 0 3 14 377 557 193 112 0
ODI 0 0 0 156 534 198 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 747 1471 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 373 4160 6282 4741

Date: 2017-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22171 5022 2305 578 32 0 0
OW 54 4 26 646 573 83 1 0
VODI 0 1 2 382 826 243 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 640 264 89 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 807 1780 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 341 3771 6335 4581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57107 22166 4919 2537 1231 171 1 0
OW 54 10 104 331 469 106 16 0
VODI 0 0 27 365 435 232 97 0
ODI 0 0 0 199 437 244 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 819 1662 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 374 3758 6353 4581


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