Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2016-07-07

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-07-11

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 772 338 98 20 8 0 0
OW 0 1 31 252 11 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 307 190 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 955 258 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3202 12381 1606 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1861 8368 6200 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 772 341 219 36 10 0 0
OW 0 1 24 189 56 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 200 293 126 60 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 602 705 129 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 2513 9886 1736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2739 10294 5884 1

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 95 99 89 19 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 36 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 79 63 4 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 19 477 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 723 700 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 4 580 54 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 95 99 105 20 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 47 6 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 59 112 15 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 12 279 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 827 556 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 46 665 54 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 365 884 862 37 0 0 0
OW 0 3 21 304 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 642 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 459 1229 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 224 2067 980 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 596 1048 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 365 877 969 95 0 0 0
OW 0 2 19 327 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 14 342 226 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 234 370 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 619 2310 876 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1042 1186 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1111 634 101 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 15 275 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 838 173 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 1191 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 392 749 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1105 500 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 136 263 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 780 254 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 911 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 569 745 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 26 194 78 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 72 222 15 2 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 659 278 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 108 2110 268 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 200 2893 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 26 218 140 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 230 69 7 0 0
VODI 0 4 18 425 576 44 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 269 1584 594 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 374 2532 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 7 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 110 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 335 160 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 1568 130 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 162 1972 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 495 173 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 7 124 13 6 0 0
OW 0 0 0 193 91 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 187 638 80 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 883 388 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 230 1460 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 661 181 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3887 1523 125 0 6 0 0
OW 0 1 0 73 11 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 67 83 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 244 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 163 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 28 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3887 1523 180 35 8 0 0
OW 0 1 0 43 50 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 133 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 115 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 101 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3046 5896 2267 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3046 5896 2267 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5643 3828 544 212 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 10 200 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 266 144 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 473 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 193 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5643 3828 529 275 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 25 265 163 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 149 394 94 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 76 98 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 61 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11999 986 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11999 986 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3840 543 271 32 40 0 0
OW 0 1 2 170 19 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 157 159 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 387 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3828 514 267 41 41 0 0
OW 0 13 30 136 39 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 161 116 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 281 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 127 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2966 1768 2124 198 16 0 0
OW 0 11 7 353 68 8 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 294 179 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 282 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 156 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2961 1715 2034 209 16 0 0
OW 0 5 35 429 113 4 0 0
VODI 0 9 25 241 143 30 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 89 140 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 278 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12507 6077 831 326 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 70 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 134 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 108 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12507 6077 827 354 26 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 63 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 72 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 95 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0


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