Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-04-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 60709 21933 2672 1266 312 12 0 0
OW 62 183 359 617 347 54 0 0
VODI 0 112 176 692 646 134 0 0
ODI 0 115 89 432 788 466 4 0
CDI 0 31 134 380 1012 1495 210 7
VCDI 0 0 17 364 1471 8152 33041 48554
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 61835 20101 3161 1590 366 27 0 0
OW 62 219 365 678 443 51 0 0
VODI 0 136 139 521 843 282 0 0
ODI 0 69 77 390 683 551 1 2
CDI 0 75 115 349 713 976 240 95
VCDI 0 4 88 298 1531 7781 30537 51654
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63151 19864 2052 1888 362 13 0 0
OW 60 109 191 613 500 30 0 0
VODI 0 88 128 536 904 245 2 0
ODI 0 1 48 438 797 629 15 0
CDI 0 0 40 208 1024 1653 298 9
VCDI 0 0 42 282 1394 9860 31800 47774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 62719 19930 2190 1971 459 12 0 0
OW 61 123 285 550 618 38 0 0
VODI 0 71 117 461 983 264 0 0
ODI 0 40 102 308 651 504 13 0
CDI 0 0 27 305 862 1232 118 4
VCDI 0 0 0 301 1612 10349 32058 47710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 62719 19955 2226 1989 485 7 0 0
OW 61 102 242 547 613 40 0 0
VODI 0 77 128 428 878 263 0 0
ODI 0 30 104 323 757 450 13 0
CDI 0 0 21 301 858 1290 114 3
VCDI 0 0 0 308 1594 10349 32062 47711

Date: 2016-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63198 19519 2131 1863 432 8 0 0
OW 60 116 259 594 758 16 0 0
VODI 0 64 105 449 936 330 0 0
ODI 0 55 36 209 509 518 4 0
CDI 0 15 83 195 706 1730 292 4
VCDI 0 0 1 197 1530 10309 32918 46899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63198 19539 2191 1962 597 9 0 0
OW 60 104 204 511 653 59 0 0
VODI 0 74 108 427 855 266 0 0
ODI 0 52 48 234 535 558 4 0
CDI 0 0 64 170 726 1839 350 4
VCDI 0 0 0 203 1505 10180 32860 46899

Date: 2016-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63224 20338 2437 1502 186 0 0 0
OW 60 11 239 951 453 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 29 654 996 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 166 1235 273 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 977 1831 152 2
VCDI 0 0 0 60 1039 7669 37106 45353
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63224 19881 2106 1783 674 0 0 0
OW 60 221 249 516 592 39 0 0
VODI 0 138 147 376 677 82 0 0
ODI 0 78 68 293 629 344 14 0
CDI 0 31 104 205 822 1335 313 5
VCDI 0 0 33 256 1492 7976 36935 45350

Date: 2016-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63643 19993 2510 1440 178 0 0 0
OW 60 96 261 933 492 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 90 513 801 184 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 271 749 477 7 0
CDI 0 0 11 222 840 1664 299 7
VCDI 0 0 0 289 2055 7761 38146 43018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 63643 19527 2326 1704 709 117 0 0
OW 60 247 215 493 312 126 0 0
VODI 0 144 117 396 623 158 0 0
ODI 0 80 57 266 517 490 10 0
CDI 0 63 80 236 717 1395 300 0
VCDI 0 31 111 573 2237 7801 38142 43025

Date: 2016-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 64575 19364 2017 1828 201 0 0 0
OW 60 147 230 883 536 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 85 517 985 82 0 0
ODI 0 3 42 231 761 457 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 187 1203 1648 140 3
VCDI 0 0 2 222 1835 9502 34195 45072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 64575 19088 1889 2199 705 1 0 0
OW 60 250 171 341 505 20 0 0
VODI 0 108 146 350 636 239 0 0
ODI 0 56 67 310 594 556 16 0
CDI 0 22 72 295 852 1519 298 16
VCDI 0 3 52 373 2229 9355 34021 45059


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