Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71924 16539 3161 444 234 150 0 0
OW 49 369 341 226 36 5 0 0
VODI 0 342 329 457 81 2 0 0
ODI 0 140 140 327 267 11 0 0
CDI 0 6 49 166 589 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 54 166 770 4075 3235 4307
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73365 15548 2213 341 219 290 22 0
OW 52 531 245 152 24 23 0 0
VODI 0 329 261 272 43 1 0 0
ODI 0 265 273 452 96 0 0 0
CDI 0 53 134 294 398 14 0 0
VCDI 0 13 108 249 1026 3510 4015 4269
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68122 20792 2842 528 173 112 0 0
OW 48 414 311 390 80 117 0 0
VODI 0 171 160 398 209 40 0 0
ODI 0 12 53 194 299 1 0 0
CDI 0 8 36 154 416 138 0 0
VCDI 0 0 21 106 480 3538 4436 4301
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67762 21362 2352 286 104 107 46 0
OW 63 698 325 224 62 12 0 0
VODI 0 331 268 368 77 3 0 0
ODI 0 88 173 342 103 11 0 0
CDI 0 21 74 246 260 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 35 172 920 3487 4736 3933
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67772 21456 2383 294 126 119 46 0
OW 53 597 299 205 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 370 263 375 71 3 0 0
ODI 0 77 174 335 117 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 76 252 286 54 0 0
VCDI 0 0 32 177 883 3482 4736 3933

Date: 2015-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67534 21046 2155 383 115 141 29 0
OW 84 836 311 222 48 21 1 0
VODI 0 562 252 281 58 2 0 0
ODI 0 151 209 254 96 12 0 0
CDI 0 72 171 381 150 71 3 0
VCDI 0 1 61 437 1209 3607 4889 3245
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67555 21064 2145 373 124 161 30 0
OW 63 856 321 213 39 1 0 0
VODI 0 544 270 278 54 2 0 0
ODI 0 164 189 299 90 16 0 0
CDI 0 40 217 366 162 59 2 0
VCDI 0 0 17 429 1207 3615 4890 3245

Date: 2015-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63920 23710 3638 467 154 67 0 0
OW 49 755 418 347 67 58 1 0
VODI 0 177 221 434 148 74 2 0
ODI 0 0 36 377 216 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 261 343 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 189 634 3033 5654 3469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63918 23137 3163 320 177 171 3 0
OW 51 683 403 193 35 28 0 0
VODI 0 565 247 307 85 0 0 0
ODI 0 232 222 214 139 3 0 0
CDI 0 25 228 366 254 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 61 675 872 3168 5654 3469

Date: 2015-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68220 20102 2063 476 57 71 39 0
OW 51 528 266 258 83 22 5 0
VODI 0 612 271 253 171 12 0 0
ODI 0 90 250 278 205 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 59 355 458 123 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 85 784 2930 6231 3638
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68219 19531 1866 330 82 92 44 0
OW 52 649 225 173 43 1 0 0
VODI 0 794 289 257 100 21 0 0
ODI 0 267 179 194 143 34 1 0
CDI 0 62 224 349 281 93 5 0
VCDI 0 29 126 402 1109 2954 6242 3638

Date: 2015-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65668 20621 3193 653 143 98 31 0
OW 56 497 260 298 88 55 6 0
VODI 0 419 181 269 201 4 0 0
ODI 0 261 288 241 250 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 69 454 478 152 5 0
VCDI 0 0 4 137 613 2910 6867 3603
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65667 20264 2951 563 156 116 34 0
OW 57 519 328 181 54 25 3 0
VODI 0 565 303 305 154 29 0 0
ODI 0 292 134 277 189 29 0 0
CDI 0 124 189 324 321 96 2 0
VCDI 0 34 90 402 899 2951 6870 3603


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