Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3074 909 212 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 323 664 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 308 178 628 444 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 76 270 510 196 39 0
CDI 0 0 8 22 379 925 104 16
VCDI 0 0 0 1 191 3838 7721 10817
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18 2447 697 301 201 0 0 0
OW 0 54 222 249 398 10 0 0
VODI 0 159 111 255 835 166 0 0
ODI 0 75 130 192 442 266 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 100 242 867 142 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 2056 8766 12581
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 33 2723 627 222 4 0 0 0
OW 0 246 331 302 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 165 415 309 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 109 527 119 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 391 952 99 16
VCDI 0 0 0 5 65 1751 6196 16329
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2395 706 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 210 334 352 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 183 399 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 121 199 480 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 63 469 761 13 9
VCDI 0 0 0 20 342 2823 7391 14439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2446 715 128 2 0 0 0
OW 0 149 272 261 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 225 433 184 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 132 215 492 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 50 416 700 10 8
VCDI 0 0 0 12 391 2859 7394 14440

Date: 2015-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1832 654 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 214 284 218 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 124 418 244 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 107 386 150 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 34 371 822 110 49
VCDI 0 0 0 11 44 2508 7393 15959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1891 693 126 0 0 0 0
OW 0 153 238 255 44 4 0 0
VODI 0 38 141 294 226 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 148 345 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 374 741 105 49
VCDI 0 0 0 11 57 2593 7399 15959

Date: 2015-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1971 671 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 194 236 286 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 57 365 262 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 416 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 227 1237 122 55
VCDI 0 0 0 3 28 2562 7352 15690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1849 452 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 303 271 149 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 199 387 212 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 42 186 156 75 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 369 502 136 64
VCDI 0 0 0 8 205 3324 7327 15681

Date: 2015-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1775 436 61 0 0 0 0
OW 0 393 308 306 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 170 444 229 31 0 0
ODI 0 1 13 142 293 169 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 291 636 136 16
VCDI 0 0 0 10 248 4126 7792 13880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1721 365 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 386 186 146 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 157 277 327 146 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 82 193 135 133 3 0
CDI 0 0 17 194 231 409 137 15
VCDI 0 0 0 113 564 4396 7795 13881

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1075 707 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 238 293 388 39 6 0 0
VODI 0 191 182 473 258 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 275 371 126 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 249 412 94 53
VCDI 0 0 0 13 287 3423 8902 13825
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1388 687 82 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 274 242 18 7 0 0
VODI 0 15 214 393 169 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 235 231 116 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 194 310 332 60 9
VCDI 0 0 0 120 476 3515 8935 13869


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