Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-08-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87013 35572 5711 2357 138 0 0 0
OW 0 54 977 3190 247 25 0 0
VODI 0 5 83 6859 3881 176 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 573 7471 3002 75 0
CDI 0 0 2 158 2234 20101 5645 0
VCDI 0 0 4 100 320 710 361 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89400 33607 6050 2607 124 8 0 0
OW 0 84 967 3192 336 27 0 0
VODI 0 6 284 5844 4838 243 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 973 6105 4422 416 0
CDI 0 0 34 324 2909 14642 8481 242
VCDI 0 0 9 65 314 153 242 82
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88377 36699 5600 2092 66 17 0 0
OW 0 46 1173 2455 154 17 0 0
VODI 0 2 69 7708 1434 37 12 0
ODI 0 0 40 1389 6596 2032 254 0
CDI 0 0 66 323 2119 11248 3053 45
VCDI 0 1 13 92 65 2342 8932 2480
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2015-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84410 42461 5551 1513 48 0 0 0
OW 0 164 1473 2547 132 6 0 0
VODI 0 5 200 6622 2654 203 24 0
ODI 0 15 34 841 4292 2431 2124 0
CDI 0 0 50 200 2063 8669 6574 1
VCDI 0 0 0 110 171 8341 3093 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84410 42431 5837 1629 53 0 0 0
OW 0 185 1163 2559 144 8 0 0
VODI 0 14 227 6343 2614 284 54 0
ODI 0 15 37 988 4122 2341 1955 0
CDI 0 0 44 195 2267 8508 6825 1
VCDI 0 0 0 119 160 8509 2981 26

Date: 2015-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88533 39736 5424 1343 42 3 0 0
OW 0 19 1576 2337 39 5 0 0
VODI 0 5 42 8026 875 22 1 0
ODI 0 73 6 622 5885 478 27 0
CDI 0 4 0 220 2081 16539 563 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 47 2067 10158 234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88533 39479 5262 1789 57 6 0 0
OW 0 239 1349 2652 133 17 2 0
VODI 0 38 416 6683 2125 248 40 0
ODI 0 60 19 1117 4180 2842 792 0
CDI 0 21 2 204 2285 9708 5826 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 189 6293 4089 234

Date: 2015-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90646 37889 5754 1705 36 0 0 0
OW 0 17 1447 2892 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 68 6557 1576 52 0 0
ODI 0 44 12 720 5150 1237 97 0
CDI 0 5 5 341 2965 12359 4117 0
VCDI 0 0 1 43 223 6311 4632 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90646 37561 5239 2120 55 0 0 0
OW 0 288 1520 2693 263 10 0 0
VODI 0 81 461 5995 2641 328 6 0
ODI 0 48 58 966 4951 2655 225 0
CDI 0 14 7 326 2089 10671 4646 0
VCDI 0 0 2 158 61 6295 3969 0

Date: 2015-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94105 36616 4497 1176 38 0 0 0
OW 0 86 1815 2917 238 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 212 5946 1472 168 2 0
ODI 0 28 10 769 4436 2006 155 0
CDI 0 0 0 322 3404 10471 6124 1385
VCDI 0 0 0 1 224 3181 4566 637
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94105 36082 4304 1702 111 0 0 0
OW 0 469 1477 2589 358 19 0 0
VODI 0 174 688 5507 2540 378 16 0
ODI 0 36 64 999 4728 2919 148 0
CDI 0 8 1 217 1976 9858 6502 270
VCDI 0 0 0 117 99 2654 4181 1752


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