Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-06-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72848 16299 1710 1336 19 0 0 0
OW 22 19 222 759 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 81 549 542 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 191 685 222 13 0
CDI 0 0 2 74 709 1452 1587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 26 396 6208 2958
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72946 15961 2216 1367 48 0 0 0
OW 19 18 273 612 231 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 98 514 623 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 200 667 317 9 0
CDI 0 0 3 61 582 1689 1812 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 326 3761 4651
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73317 15795 2586 1267 37 0 0 0
OW 18 0 81 714 213 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 620 584 37 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 916 256 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 474 2161 1197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 402 4159 4118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72755 16672 2259 1470 24 0 0 0
OW 16 0 71 803 218 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 539 743 32 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 1037 193 34 0
CDI 0 0 1 39 792 2431 1361 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 609 5170 1720
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72755 16672 2251 1586 46 2 0 0
OW 16 0 78 677 207 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 546 698 33 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 1057 192 35 0
CDI 0 0 1 41 805 2460 1370 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 580 5160 1720

Date: 2015-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72845 17223 1967 1307 30 0 0 0
OW 10 6 143 858 262 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 22 465 828 77 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 87 853 535 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 519 1986 2028 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 869 3707 2379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72845 17218 1944 1368 57 0 0 0
OW 10 11 160 774 232 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 477 805 90 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 99 855 466 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 543 2045 2160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 859 3568 2379

Date: 2015-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74793 15703 1900 1155 17 0 0 0
OW 11 0 134 854 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 698 605 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 1284 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 632 1878 212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 351 4503 3936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74794 15686 1802 1447 83 0 0 0
OW 10 17 173 668 275 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 51 530 769 129 3 0
ODI 0 0 13 100 862 349 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 657 1625 2342 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 264 2334 3935

Date: 2015-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74381 16030 2160 1399 39 0 0 0
OW 9 0 83 803 164 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 691 658 33 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 208 792 129 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 134 1540 950 443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 166 2899 5120 224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74381 16018 2032 1569 119 4 0 0
OW 9 12 173 777 283 21 3 0
VODI 0 0 37 570 723 83 29 0
ODI 0 0 9 160 884 181 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 1281 2230 1567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 1496 3888 224

Date: 2015-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72354 17966 2192 1551 60 0 0 0
OW 8 0 67 943 155 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 806 552 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 856 118 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 186 1534 1343 517 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 62 2824 4750 56
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72354 17925 2112 1853 184 3 0 0
OW 8 34 110 806 311 26 0 0
VODI 0 7 17 610 604 72 7 0
ODI 0 0 15 166 925 253 17 0
CDI 0 0 6 200 1085 1543 2071 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 110 2419 3182 56


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