Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 792 285 85 11 0 0 0
OW 0 380 129 57 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 394 363 265 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 96 174 395 365 37 2 0
CDI 0 67 35 141 585 450 84 2
VCDI 0 58 72 142 352 4365 11905 9888
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 453 485 97 18 0 0 0
OW 0 266 109 42 25 6 0 0
VODI 0 407 256 73 52 28 0 0
ODI 0 125 200 385 147 57 0 0
CDI 0 55 44 249 284 419 68 41
VCDI 0 3 61 130 204 2634 9793 14866
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1101 496 81 11 0 0 0
OW 0 207 215 149 43 2 0 0
VODI 0 124 248 99 60 14 0 0
ODI 0 7 108 214 86 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 128 387 413 6 29
VCDI 0 0 0 27 537 5112 6732 15367
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 326 734 63 6 0 0 0
OW 0 165 245 65 24 2 0 0
VODI 0 61 385 219 121 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 142 236 118 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 176 185 421 68 2
VCDI 0 0 0 85 329 6469 14819 6528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 307 789 79 13 0 0 0
OW 0 171 225 82 62 9 0 0
VODI 0 74 342 196 76 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 142 253 153 57 1 0
CDI 0 0 8 162 192 442 71 2
VCDI 0 0 0 72 287 6442 14815 6528

Date: 2014-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 339 439 68 17 0 0 0
OW 0 210 185 52 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 372 175 137 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 59 433 202 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 141 244 232 19 11
VCDI 0 0 0 79 332 4758 12193 11295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 409 479 90 20 0 0 0
OW 0 133 200 45 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 318 175 130 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 59 376 228 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 172 240 249 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 321 4734 12182 11306

Date: 2014-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1169 640 91 14 0 0 0
OW 0 16 232 192 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 47 263 172 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 127 328 165 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 257 554 43 7
VCDI 0 0 0 23 172 4303 9992 13148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 683 381 55 2 0 0 0
OW 0 260 89 31 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 215 215 57 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 163 286 159 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 73 207 201 142 7 7
VCDI 0 0 0 131 565 4870 10028 13148

Date: 2014-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 610 459 108 57 0 0 0
OW 0 23 284 197 36 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 63 384 168 87 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 124 174 185 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 268 544 136 19
VCDI 0 0 0 6 192 4870 11736 11279
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 516 363 115 37 0 0 0
OW 0 109 209 81 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 8 202 206 70 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 262 266 161 22 3
CDI 0 0 0 150 207 400 101 35
VCDI 0 0 0 65 292 5118 11751 11260

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 143 441 86 55 0 0 0
OW 0 60 114 72 35 5 0 0
VODI 0 11 105 227 33 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 197 193 104 0 1
CDI 0 0 1 49 197 611 135 22
VCDI 0 0 0 13 129 4745 11241 13035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 152 306 103 46 0 0 0
OW 0 40 218 56 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 136 249 73 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 214 205 115 9 0
CDI 0 0 1 18 190 697 173 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 96 4658 11194 13056


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