Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-01-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60617 21585 2951 1235 157 3 0 0
OW 63 164 471 577 235 27 0 0
VODI 0 67 360 622 444 80 11 0
ODI 0 5 177 408 678 124 56 0
CDI 0 0 98 444 1025 675 144 0
VCDI 0 0 13 185 952 3165 7529 3753
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61177 20007 3432 1244 277 15 0 0
OW 51 164 545 630 216 43 3 0
VODI 0 70 342 589 420 119 29 0
ODI 0 8 147 431 475 199 37 0
CDI 0 0 45 486 1028 855 131 0
VCDI 0 0 20 146 918 3325 7348 4128
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62212 20385 2744 1169 151 2 0 0
OW 63 68 390 854 231 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 178 687 510 96 3 0
ODI 0 0 12 386 645 250 25 0
CDI 0 0 5 143 775 997 153 0
VCDI 0 0 5 90 587 3115 8154 3999
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59733 21168 3586 1404 149 21 0 0
OW 51 64 386 818 233 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 222 732 483 101 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 396 665 343 19 0
CDI 0 0 11 220 913 860 185 0
VCDI 0 0 4 141 719 3080 8007 4322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59720 21200 3819 1927 353 54 0 0
OW 64 32 218 506 206 38 0 0
VODI 0 0 150 536 344 99 1 0
ODI 0 0 40 374 573 281 16 0
CDI 0 0 7 194 895 872 183 0
VCDI 0 0 13 174 791 3087 8011 4322

Date: 2014-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62017 19517 2776 1337 165 11 0 0
OW 51 101 390 723 202 15 0 0
VODI 0 18 262 734 426 77 0 0
ODI 0 0 90 419 552 219 25 0
CDI 0 0 18 322 847 925 132 0
VCDI 0 0 12 130 774 3259 8532 4022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62017 19570 2999 1811 327 22 0 0
OW 51 60 250 430 179 30 0 0
VODI 0 6 188 527 307 77 2 0
ODI 0 0 69 416 401 180 21 0
CDI 0 0 20 316 803 845 145 0
VCDI 0 0 22 165 949 3352 8521 4022

Date: 2014-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61399 19332 3896 1316 89 3 0 0
OW 51 25 389 890 180 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 142 744 551 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 283 785 147 2 0
CDI 0 0 4 152 698 1145 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 92 492 3781 8243 4094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61398 19282 3782 1797 369 10 0 0
OW 52 52 257 371 204 37 0 0
VODI 0 18 208 375 342 91 3 0
ODI 0 7 83 310 379 143 20 0
CDI 0 0 51 337 597 646 122 0
VCDI 0 0 76 287 904 4175 8221 4094

Date: 2014-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59722 21026 3976 1106 132 35 0 0
OW 51 55 511 633 154 4 0 0
VODI 0 8 241 770 389 25 2 0
ODI 0 0 71 412 654 85 26 0
CDI 0 0 20 323 905 514 80 0
VCDI 0 0 11 228 1008 4458 7431 4034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59721 20947 3931 1579 450 43 0 0
OW 52 92 314 284 178 36 0 0
VODI 0 48 256 376 279 67 16 0
ODI 0 2 142 302 429 106 35 0
CDI 0 0 94 389 640 314 46 0
VCDI 0 0 93 542 1266 4555 7442 4034

Date: 2014-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59721 22292 2590 1066 254 32 0 0
OW 51 76 509 662 181 29 0 0
VODI 0 2 253 619 443 125 2 0
ODI 0 0 82 376 505 167 39 0
CDI 0 0 22 274 562 615 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 222 1000 4705 7272 4337
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59720 22131 2607 1402 455 64 0 0
OW 52 98 243 320 195 41 1 0
VODI 0 77 188 351 292 104 9 0
ODI 0 44 99 274 306 289 23 0
CDI 0 20 158 229 544 651 19 0
VCDI 0 0 161 643 1153 4524 7276 4337


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