Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-03-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65416 17180 484 836 402 142 55 0
OW 52 456 146 342 239 153 15 0
VODI 0 212 101 403 571 243 38 0
ODI 0 103 40 192 501 502 69 0
CDI 0 49 56 209 596 1460 524 0
VCDI 0 33 21 125 502 4313 26900 63367
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64883 17337 513 810 480 215 53 0
OW 52 420 147 357 244 178 35 0
VODI 0 192 94 382 531 346 64 0
ODI 0 90 40 210 413 586 125 0
CDI 0 36 40 169 563 1522 554 0
VCDI 0 46 31 95 345 3665 23253 67932
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65820 16701 423 656 343 149 37 0
OW 53 421 169 429 223 148 10 0
VODI 0 149 112 543 391 397 14 0
ODI 0 50 36 205 493 454 61 0
CDI 0 17 18 118 568 1322 436 0
VCDI 0 5 10 98 442 4316 28780 62431
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65001 17226 461 683 467 205 29 0
OW 54 443 153 402 226 169 10 0
VODI 0 185 131 373 364 378 45 0
ODI 0 55 32 189 314 401 91 0
CDI 0 24 14 130 412 795 423 8
VCDI 0 17 11 68 578 4818 31022 60641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65001 17256 489 770 496 217 29 0
OW 54 417 134 346 229 194 15 0
VODI 0 182 122 348 356 367 51 0
ODI 0 50 29 185 293 407 102 0
CDI 0 32 18 117 378 746 442 7
VCDI 0 13 10 79 609 4835 30981 60642

Date: 2024-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63824 18008 557 757 407 223 25 0
OW 53 444 155 426 246 144 33 0
VODI 0 216 80 358 421 239 125 0
ODI 0 78 46 148 339 347 130 0
CDI 0 50 31 116 314 635 358 2
VCDI 0 23 30 236 942 4938 31879 59665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63824 18087 584 861 445 251 33 0
OW 53 392 132 364 236 148 61 0
VODI 0 197 84 322 423 243 120 0
ODI 0 71 38 138 313 360 134 0
CDI 0 49 29 110 284 614 346 1
VCDI 0 23 32 246 968 4910 31856 59666

Date: 2024-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63461 18515 582 653 335 197 68 0
OW 56 387 183 408 184 96 30 0
VODI 0 161 81 393 427 243 51 0
ODI 0 48 47 159 351 390 149 0
CDI 0 10 38 123 296 722 526 7
VCDI 0 8 24 179 950 4069 36344 56097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63462 18363 620 841 460 313 120 0
OW 55 359 109 287 228 194 109 0
VODI 0 243 67 275 319 312 174 0
ODI 0 87 57 124 216 300 202 0
CDI 0 43 42 120 237 462 373 9
VCDI 0 34 60 268 1083 4136 36190 56095

Date: 2024-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64975 17258 489 632 351 225 77 0
OW 55 374 145 381 192 93 60 0
VODI 0 187 79 289 332 281 102 0
ODI 0 84 40 161 207 259 257 0
CDI 0 63 37 117 307 516 574 4
VCDI 0 17 31 189 967 3680 34144 58817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64976 16983 485 790 488 387 149 0
OW 54 408 97 220 227 207 162 0
VODI 0 281 96 200 253 274 253 0
ODI 0 129 53 140 135 251 276 0
CDI 0 97 30 160 200 412 601 22
VCDI 0 85 60 259 1053 3523 33773 58799

Date: 2024-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64490 17510 464 696 440 311 126 0
OW 53 413 117 270 220 127 91 0
VODI 0 206 97 252 278 293 241 0
ODI 0 85 52 109 253 256 386 0
CDI 0 61 34 159 271 511 833 11
VCDI 0 45 20 198 691 2773 33438 60167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64490 16946 467 750 568 635 359 0
OW 53 596 85 247 201 133 243 0
VODI 0 354 84 156 254 218 337 0
ODI 0 124 53 116 170 197 408 0
CDI 0 87 39 120 182 355 766 6
VCDI 0 213 56 295 778 2733 33002 60172


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