Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80590 16135 569 855 492 373 180 9
OW 154 1487 284 768 375 107 20 11
VODI 17 741 202 519 542 410 20 4
ODI 3 156 98 351 415 640 42 1
CDI 0 38 26 195 488 1523 277 2
VCDI 0 51 21 64 347 3646 29284 44516
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79652 15143 568 845 564 377 213 5
OW 63 1507 287 829 798 123 14 12
VODI 0 832 214 538 879 423 27 6
ODI 0 203 117 278 592 589 50 2
CDI 0 50 51 258 502 1336 284 6
VCDI 0 82 33 173 513 3745 27785 46480
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78866 15461 609 956 392 332 164 0
OW 113 1033 336 694 382 68 10 0
VODI 7 590 212 753 792 204 35 0
ODI 0 168 84 363 906 608 45 0
CDI 0 77 59 237 844 1693 313 7
VCDI 0 83 47 201 601 4808 26859 47036
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77373 15535 526 794 499 257 157 0
OW 55 1040 272 656 533 198 10 0
VODI 0 620 232 612 793 338 38 0
ODI 0 208 124 479 890 495 40 0
CDI 0 85 46 320 895 1070 142 2
VCDI 0 114 51 212 943 6948 25783 47663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2023-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75127 16521 1079 573 544 242 252 0
OW 59 1081 262 590 619 238 29 0
VODI 0 684 211 519 812 520 84 0
ODI 0 255 103 337 642 508 121 0
CDI 0 131 69 300 874 951 329 6
VCDI 0 211 77 272 1279 7268 24626 48643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2023-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78086 13679 338 401 138 221 282 0
OW 62 954 331 605 161 93 14 0
VODI 1 408 280 986 591 269 20 0
ODI 0 89 83 402 1059 1110 46 0
CDI 0 67 53 217 670 2544 366 1
VCDI 0 31 29 129 637 7238 21744 52613
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2023-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77284 12939 325 449 254 236 211 0
OW 62 871 215 477 247 83 14 0
VODI 0 489 216 775 719 235 9 0
ODI 0 120 80 376 952 645 18 0
CDI 0 68 45 175 753 1898 523 2
VCDI 0 37 50 248 918 7700 25984 50346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76074 13006 396 484 224 218 260 0
OW 65 884 173 377 303 84 23 0
VODI 0 516 155 498 613 197 37 0
ODI 0 145 68 418 1065 397 47 0
CDI 0 89 45 186 970 1386 251 62
VCDI 0 60 61 329 898 8054 28363 49567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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