Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67915 16793 532 867 524 183 45 0
OW 84 139 98 327 342 141 25 0
VODI 0 87 37 271 464 330 109 0
ODI 0 55 46 252 560 474 275 0
CDI 0 44 32 225 1279 3125 1696 2
VCDI 0 53 27 235 826 7178 38968 42383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68659 16430 520 784 412 124 24 0
OW 71 170 131 388 350 105 11 0
VODI 0 71 47 336 573 306 64 0
ODI 0 48 48 215 661 627 201 0
CDI 0 51 69 192 1076 2758 1825 2
VCDI 0 111 59 239 1030 7137 40067 41056
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69320 16547 431 613 240 81 5 0
OW 71 259 160 367 236 42 2 0
VODI 0 109 90 495 597 146 17 0
ODI 0 41 55 238 889 626 79 0
CDI 0 75 68 264 1405 3495 1223 16
VCDI 0 44 36 255 864 6839 41770 38938
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70724 15402 411 543 216 103 8 0
OW 67 332 167 369 227 64 6 0
VODI 0 133 136 472 514 194 33 0
ODI 0 25 49 308 840 532 99 0
CDI 0 52 50 248 1413 3376 1478 14
VCDI 0 44 58 287 803 8679 39324 39248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70724 15431 434 614 265 108 7 0
OW 67 292 144 315 233 75 9 0
VODI 0 142 130 423 470 196 32 0
ODI 0 27 55 315 816 518 92 0
CDI 0 56 57 286 1460 3459 1600 12
VCDI 0 40 51 274 769 8592 39208 39250

Date: 2023-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70391 15740 424 595 242 104 54 0
OW 59 354 150 418 269 93 37 0
VODI 0 181 110 432 574 269 62 0
ODI 0 77 60 311 617 667 262 0
CDI 0 53 51 322 1347 2530 1711 9
VCDI 0 131 70 334 973 8274 39046 39645
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70391 15771 452 680 288 106 57 0
OW 59 307 125 353 274 103 39 0
VODI 0 186 100 389 503 255 55 0
ODI 0 88 64 301 668 736 240 0
CDI 0 63 56 364 1320 2464 1701 8
VCDI 0 121 68 325 969 8273 39080 39646

Date: 2023-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70014 16361 421 540 218 76 26 0
OW 56 422 248 446 204 58 12 0
VODI 0 204 154 780 724 135 22 0
ODI 0 104 60 389 1170 721 124 0
CDI 0 65 41 280 1517 4400 1481 1
VCDI 0 10 17 81 430 8923 42987 33126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70012 16173 471 703 339 112 42 0
OW 58 375 149 360 236 94 20 0
VODI 0 201 124 439 602 246 90 0
ODI 0 106 61 336 659 585 374 0
CDI 0 143 52 354 1326 2182 1858 2
VCDI 0 168 84 324 1101 11094 42268 33125

Date: 2023-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70821 16316 457 571 227 75 17 0
OW 54 413 184 477 240 40 17 0
VODI 0 265 178 574 714 207 61 0
ODI 0 127 72 350 840 455 226 0
CDI 0 89 49 347 1455 3517 1705 0
VCDI 0 7 19 188 1024 7892 40987 35791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70819 15800 423 639 329 107 47 0
OW 56 481 117 343 253 84 21 0
VODI 0 335 145 376 545 265 170 0
ODI 0 211 112 321 610 486 411 0
CDI 0 216 94 488 1290 2078 1713 18
VCDI 0 174 68 340 1473 9166 40651 35773

Date: 2023-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70987 16064 438 632 296 89 9 0
OW 62 437 232 511 348 99 22 0
VODI 0 319 159 567 717 294 130 0
ODI 0 109 91 366 880 579 282 0
CDI 0 100 74 363 1388 3491 2357 0
VCDI 0 34 42 257 1140 9284 48171 25628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70987 15692 434 692 413 137 25 0
OW 62 455 131 338 283 155 34 0
VODI 0 368 164 398 496 314 263 0
ODI 0 186 127 399 678 517 559 1
CDI 0 172 74 421 1430 2304 2465 10
VCDI 0 190 106 448 1469 10409 47625 25617


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