Copernicus Marine ARC-MFC: Monitoring of sea ice concentration
Background
Contrasting results for sea ice concentration gives rise to inconsistencies in the model results, particularly with respect to vertical heat fluxes. The present monitoring introduces information of the extent and geographical distribution of these contrasts. The sea ice concentration in the atmospheric product is mapped onto the polar stereographic distribution on which the ARC MFC results are disseminated. The subsequent analysis is restricted to grids which are wet in the ARC MFC product as well as in the mapped representation of the atmospheric product.
Note that the purpose here is not to assess the forecast quality in either product. Information about the quality of sea ice forecast from ARC MFC is available for each bulletin with access from the sea ice concentration validation web page, and also in the form of validation time series.
ECMWF forecast system
The ARC MFC forecasts for the state of the ocean and the sea ice are forced by results from the 10-day atmospheric forecasts from ECMWF. The ECMWF forecast system, IFS, presently includes the LIM2 dynamic ice model. This development is decribed on the ECMWF web pages.
ARC MFC forecast system
ARC-MFC results examined here (product ARCTIC_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHYS_002_001_a) are available from the Copernicus Marine catalogue of products.