Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.56	0.81	49720	7826	41808	86
Day 1 forecast	-0.56	0.81	49720	7934	41696	90
Day 4 forecast	-0.57	0.82	49720	8070	41560	90
Day 7 forecast	-0.56	0.81	49720	7840	41784	96
Day 10 forecast	-0.57	0.83	49720	8483	41146	91

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.047	0.087	0.028	0.009	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.049	0.258	0.081	0.011	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.098	0.108	0.015	0.003
	c4	0	0	0	0.004	0.027	0.043	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.006	0.042	0.043
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.014

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.047	0.087	0.028	0.008	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.049	0.263	0.084	0.011	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.003	0.092	0.106	0.015	0.003
	c4	0	0	0	0.005	0.025	0.042	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.007	0.041	0.042
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.015

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.046	0.085	0.027	0.008	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.05	0.263	0.085	0.012	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.094	0.107	0.015	0.004
	c4	0	0	0	0.004	0.026	0.042	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.04	0.04
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.018

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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