Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.5   0.82   47879 6938 40750 191
Day 1 forecast -0.5   0.82   47879 6948 40720 211
Day 4 forecast -0.5   0.82   47879 7034 40633 212
Day 7 forecast -0.49   0.82   47879 6811 40846 222
Day 10 forecast -0.48   0.82   47879 6925 40725 229

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.064 0.09 0.02 0.005 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.11 0.267 0.043 0.007 0.005
c3 0 0 0.004 0.085 0.07 0.007 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.036 0.03 0.008
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.06 0.033
c6 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.012

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.062 0.091 0.02 0.005 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.111 0.266 0.043 0.008 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.085 0.07 0.008 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.036 0.028 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.01 0.061 0.034
c6 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.004 0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.06 0.088 0.019 0.005 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.112 0.262 0.042 0.007 0.005
c3 0 0 0.005 0.09 0.073 0.009 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.035 0.027 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.06 0.032
c6 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006 0.013

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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