Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.38   0.61   33886 5282 28460 144
Day 1 forecast -0.39   0.62   33886 5311 28421 154
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.62   33886 5392 28336 158
Day 7 forecast -0.38   0.62   33886 5291 28432 163
Day 10 forecast -0.4   0.64   33886 5632 28077 177

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.019 0.153 0.076 0.018 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.005 0.152 0.121 0.023 0.003 0.002
c3 0 0 0.015 0.112 0.104 0.015 0.003
c4 0 0 0.003 0.043 0.084 0.029 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.003 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.018 0.145 0.073 0.017 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.006 0.159 0.128 0.026 0.003 0.002
c3 0 0 0.015 0.107 0.104 0.017 0.004
c4 0 0 0.003 0.044 0.082 0.027 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.003 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.017 0.132 0.069 0.018 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.006 0.17 0.131 0.028 0.006 0.002
c3 0 0 0.017 0.106 0.103 0.016 0.004
c4 0 0 0.003 0.045 0.081 0.025 0.004
c5 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.003 0.002
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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