Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-05

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.38	0.61	33886	5282	28460	144
Day 1 forecast	-0.39	0.62	33886	5311	28421	154
Day 4 forecast	-0.39	0.62	33886	5392	28336	158
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.62	33886	5291	28432	163
Day 10 forecast	-0.4	0.64	33886	5632	28077	177

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.019	0.153	0.076	0.018	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.005	0.152	0.121	0.023	0.003	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.015	0.112	0.104	0.015	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.043	0.084	0.029	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.003	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.018	0.145	0.073	0.017	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.006	0.159	0.128	0.026	0.003	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.015	0.107	0.104	0.017	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.044	0.082	0.027	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.003	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.017	0.132	0.069	0.018	0.004	0.002
	c2	0	0.006	0.17	0.131	0.028	0.006	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.017	0.106	0.103	0.016	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.045	0.081	0.025	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.003	0.003	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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