Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.5	0.69	37424	7827	29542	55
Day 1 forecast	-0.51	0.7	37424	8091	29283	50
Day 4 forecast	-0.52	0.71	37424	8337	29042	45
Day 7 forecast	-0.51	0.69	37424	7836	29542	46
Day 10 forecast	-0.53	0.71	37424	8519	28856	49

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.022	0.242	0.114	0.016	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.001	0.071	0.131	0.041	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.066	0.094	0.02	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.026	0.091	0.021	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.004	0.004	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.022	0.243	0.12	0.016	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.001	0.07	0.126	0.044	0.005	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.065	0.09	0.02	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.026	0.093	0.022	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.021	0.24	0.119	0.015	0.004	0.004
	c2	0	0.002	0.074	0.126	0.044	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.069	0.091	0.02	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.023	0.093	0.022	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.003	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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