Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2022-11-17
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.42 | 0.63 | 31219 | 7986 | 23160 | 73 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.44 | 0.64 | 31219 | 8224 | 22925 | 70 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.45 | 0.65 | 31219 | 8484 | 22669 | 66 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.43 | 0.63 | 31219 | 7995 | 23151 | 73 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.54 | 0.74 | 31219 | 11384 | 19659 | 176 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.078 | 0.237 | 0.073 | 0.011 | 0.003 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.089 | 0.137 | 0.016 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.021 | 0.122 | 0.064 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.041 | 0.087 | 0.011 | 0.002 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.077 | 0.237 | 0.073 | 0.011 | 0.003 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.089 | 0.14 | 0.017 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.021 | 0.13 | 0.075 | 0.004 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.03 | 0.075 | 0.009 | 0.002 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.077 | 0.235 | 0.071 | 0.01 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.09 | 0.143 | 0.017 | 0.001 | 0 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.021 | 0.13 | 0.079 | 0.005 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.029 | 0.073 | 0.009 | 0.002 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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