Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.38	0.68	52428	8530	43766	132
Day 1 forecast	-0.38	0.68	52428	8385	43895	148
Day 4 forecast	-0.39	0.69	52428	8420	43850	158
Day 7 forecast	-0.38	0.68	52428	8203	44067	158
Day 10 forecast	-0.41	0.7	52428	8485	43694	249

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.046	0.085	0.024	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0	0.018	0.072	0.026	0.007	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.16	0.141	0.016	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.019	0.095	0.052	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.023	0.088	0.029
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.043

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.045	0.081	0.023	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0	0.019	0.078	0.028	0.007	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.157	0.141	0.016	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.095	0.057	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.021	0.084	0.035
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.036

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.044	0.077	0.022	0.006	0.003
	c2	0	0	0.02	0.082	0.029	0.008	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.011	0.155	0.139	0.015	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.019	0.096	0.06	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.021	0.082	0.036
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.035

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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