Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.4	0.69	52365	7991	44234	140
Day 1 forecast	-0.42	0.7	52365	8271	43946	148
Day 4 forecast	-0.43	0.71	52365	8484	43738	143
Day 7 forecast	-0.41	0.71	52365	8167	44035	163
Day 10 forecast	-0.44	0.73	52365	8793	43414	158

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.059	0.07	0.022	0.007	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.063	0.189	0.045	0.005	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.007	0.105	0.078	0.009	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.02	0.113	0.047	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.025	0.077	0.019
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.008

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.061	0.073	0.022	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.061	0.194	0.048	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.007	0.099	0.082	0.01	0.002
	c4	0	0	0	0.019	0.109	0.052	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.023	0.069	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.006	0.062	0.072	0.022	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.061	0.194	0.048	0.007	0.002
	c3	0	0.001	0.007	0.1	0.084	0.01	0.002
	c4	0	0	0	0.018	0.104	0.052	0.004
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.024	0.066	0.015
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.009	0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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