Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.37   0.61   49336 7267 41970 99
Day 1 forecast -0.37   0.61   49336 7396 41834 106
Day 4 forecast -0.38   0.62   49336 7482 41755 99
Day 7 forecast -0.36   0.61   49336 7411 41795 130
Day 10 forecast -0.4   0.62   49336 7254 41974 108

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.076 0.083 0.022 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.111 0.181 0.024 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.116 0.079 0.009 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.015 0.09 0.048 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.003 0.03 0.058 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.076 0.084 0.022 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.11 0.183 0.025 0.004 0.001
c3 0 0 0.009 0.114 0.085 0.01 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.013 0.081 0.049 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.004 0.031 0.056 0.012
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.076 0.083 0.021 0.004 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.108 0.177 0.026 0.004 0.001
c3 0 0 0.011 0.118 0.084 0.01 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.015 0.081 0.048 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.004 0.032 0.056 0.012
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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