Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.38   0.64   49240 6977 42136 127
Day 1 forecast -0.38   0.63   49240 6875 42236 129
Day 4 forecast -0.39   0.64   49240 6906 42205 129
Day 7 forecast -0.37   0.63   49240 6733 42368 139
Day 10 forecast -0.4   0.64   49240 6819 42281 140

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.078 0.079 0.022 0.005 0.005
c2 0 0.004 0.108 0.205 0.028 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.112 0.09 0.008 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.013 0.086 0.031 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.004 0.037 0.049 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.079 0.08 0.021 0.005 0.005
c2 0 0.004 0.106 0.207 0.029 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.008 0.11 0.097 0.009 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.08 0.031 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.005 0.036 0.048 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.007 0.078 0.08 0.021 0.004 0.004
c2 0 0.004 0.106 0.203 0.029 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.009 0.113 0.099 0.01 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.012 0.077 0.03 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.005 0.037 0.048 0.008
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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