Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.29	0.53	38353	6219	31994	140
Day 1 forecast	-0.29	0.54	38353	6288	31918	147
Day 4 forecast	-0.3	0.55	38353	6491	31716	146
Day 7 forecast	-0.27	0.53	38353	5970	32216	167
Day 10 forecast	-0.31	0.56	38353	6934	31271	148

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.053	0.237	0.067	0.01	0.002	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.088	0.099	0.012	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.025	0.156	0.052	0.003	0
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.058	0.095	0.012	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.011	0.007	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.231	0.065	0.01	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.093	0.102	0.012	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.026	0.152	0.052	0.002	0
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.06	0.094	0.013	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.003	0.012	0.007	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.219	0.062	0.01	0.003	0.001
	c2	0	0.002	0.104	0.102	0.012	0.002	0
	c3	0	0	0.026	0.153	0.053	0.002	0
	c4	0	0	0.004	0.063	0.092	0.013	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.013	0.006	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri 24 Dec 2021 02:24:03 AM UTC on arcval