Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.33	0.61	36324	7806	28374	144
Day 1 forecast	-0.35	0.62	36324	8044	28143	137
Day 4 forecast	-0.36	0.63	36324	8344	27846	134
Day 7 forecast	-0.34	0.61	36324	7759	28424	141
Day 10 forecast	-0.42	0.65	36324	9660	26557	107

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.061	0.242	0.068	0.009	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.099	0.089	0.007	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.029	0.175	0.043	0.002	0
	c4	0	0	0.005	0.044	0.092	0.008	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.011	0.004	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.061	0.244	0.069	0.009	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.098	0.092	0.007	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.028	0.174	0.049	0.002	0
	c4	0	0	0.005	0.041	0.088	0.007	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.004	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0
	c1	0	0.061	0.24	0.067	0.009	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.1	0.093	0.007	0.001	0
	c3	0	0	0.03	0.175	0.051	0.002	0
	c4	0	0	0.005	0.042	0.087	0.008	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.008	0.004	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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