Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.42   0.58   30747 7054 23622 71
Day 1 forecast -0.51   0.64   30747 8264 22423 60
Day 4 forecast -0.54   0.67   30747 8881 21812 54
Day 7 forecast -0.53   0.66   30747 8673 22006 68
Day 10 forecast -0.73   0.83   30747 14610 16083 54

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.069 0.239 0.053 0.007 0.001 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.101 0.171 0.018 0 0
c3 0 0 0.022 0.147 0.11 0.005 0.001
c4 0 0 0.003 0.013 0.029 0.008 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.07 0.266 0.065 0.007 0.001 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.074 0.216 0.042 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.023 0.097 0.109 0.01 0.001
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.007 0.002 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.07 0.277 0.073 0.007 0.001 0.001
c2 0 0.001 0.063 0.219 0.054 0.002 0
c3 0 0 0.022 0.087 0.101 0.011 0.001
c4 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.002 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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