Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.52   0.76   42948 5440 37307 201
Day 1 forecast -0.52   0.76   42948 5442 37301 205
Day 4 forecast -0.52   0.76   42948 5495 37253 200
Day 7 forecast -0.52   0.76   42948 5448 37294 206
Day 10 forecast -0.52   0.77   42948 5566 37173 209

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.023 0.064 0.025 0.006 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.013 0.104 0.059 0.014 0.006
c3 0 0.001 0.006 0.089 0.217 0.058 0.009
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.057 0.082 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.033 0.074 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.023 0.064 0.026 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.013 0.103 0.059 0.014 0.006
c3 0 0.001 0.005 0.089 0.218 0.059 0.009
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.056 0.081 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.033 0.075 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.002 0.023 0.063 0.025 0.005 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.013 0.104 0.059 0.014 0.006
c3 0 0.001 0.006 0.09 0.219 0.059 0.009
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.056 0.081 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.033 0.074 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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