Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-04-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.51	0.77	43858	6017	37727	114
Day 1 forecast	-0.51	0.77	43858	6024	37721	113
Day 4 forecast	-0.51	0.77	43858	6047	37699	112
Day 7 forecast	-0.51	0.77	43858	5932	37786	140
Day 10 forecast	-0.51	0.77	43858	5825	37900	133

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.03	0.073	0.023	0.004	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.105	0.055	0.011	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.086	0.214	0.055	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.07	0.076	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.035	0.074	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.03	0.073	0.023	0.004	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.015	0.106	0.055	0.011	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.086	0.215	0.055	0.006
	c4	0	0	0	0.006	0.069	0.076	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.036	0.074	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.03	0.072	0.022	0.004	0.003
	c2	0	0.001	0.014	0.106	0.056	0.011	0.006
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.086	0.216	0.057	0.006
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.067	0.073	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.036	0.073	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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