Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.5	0.72	46782	7257	39420	105
Day 1 forecast	-0.52	0.73	46782	7614	39065	103
Day 4 forecast	-0.53	0.74	46782	7845	38836	101
Day 7 forecast	-0.51	0.73	46782	7518	39157	107
Day 10 forecast	-0.54	0.75	46782	8158	38515	109

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.058	0.091	0.022	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.048	0.214	0.057	0.011	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.108	0.112	0.012	0.004
	c4	0	0	0	0.015	0.105	0.052	0.009
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.027	0.022
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.058	0.094	0.023	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.047	0.22	0.059	0.01	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.099	0.111	0.012	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.103	0.054	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.024	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.057	0.093	0.023	0.006	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.048	0.216	0.061	0.01	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.103	0.108	0.013	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.104	0.054	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.023	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Apr 2 02:10:55 UTC 2021 on arcmfcval