Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-03-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.48	0.73	43781	6723	36986	72
Day 1 forecast	-0.49	0.73	43781	6843	36864	74
Day 4 forecast	-0.5	0.74	43781	7034	36667	80
Day 7 forecast	-0.48	0.73	43781	6635	37064	82
Day 10 forecast	-0.49	0.74	43781	6774	36903	104

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.055	0.076	0.018	0.005	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.074	0.228	0.059	0.01	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.106	0.104	0.013	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.108	0.047	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.026	0.014
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.055	0.077	0.019	0.005	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.074	0.228	0.063	0.01	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.103	0.099	0.013	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.016	0.109	0.051	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.022	0.014
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.005	0.053	0.075	0.018	0.005	0.006
	c2	0	0.001	0.075	0.222	0.065	0.01	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.11	0.096	0.014	0.005
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.112	0.053	0.011
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.019	0.013
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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