Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.43	0.69	39458	6114	33200	144
Day 1 forecast	-0.42	0.69	39458	5935	33369	154
Day 4 forecast	-0.43	0.69	39458	6003	33291	164
Day 7 forecast	-0.41	0.68	39458	5718	33563	177
Day 10 forecast	-0.41	0.7	39458	5996	33195	267

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.073	0.08	0.023	0.006	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.125	0.206	0.035	0.005	0.003
	c3	0	0	0.007	0.112	0.088	0.008	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.018	0.104	0.04	0.007
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.007	0.024	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.07	0.078	0.022	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.004	0.127	0.201	0.034	0.005	0.004
	c3	0	0	0.007	0.118	0.088	0.008	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.019	0.106	0.042	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.023	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.067	0.076	0.022	0.005	0.004
	c2	0	0.003	0.128	0.193	0.032	0.005	0.004
	c3	0	0.001	0.01	0.125	0.084	0.009	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.021	0.113	0.043	0.008
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.021	0.008
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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