Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-02-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.41	0.74	39974	5653	34158	163
Day 1 forecast	-0.4	0.74	39974	5619	34143	212
Day 4 forecast	-0.41	0.74	39974	5701	34043	230
Day 7 forecast	-0.39	0.73	39974	5526	34163	285
Day 10 forecast	-0.39	0.75	39974	5740	33906	328

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.091	0.075	0.019	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.131	0.198	0.033	0.005	0.002
	c3	0	0.001	0.008	0.116	0.083	0.007	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.023	0.1	0.039	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.025	0.007
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.087	0.076	0.02	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.131	0.187	0.032	0.005	0.002
	c3	0	0.001	0.011	0.123	0.077	0.008	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.027	0.106	0.04	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.007	0.023	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.007	0.082	0.074	0.02	0.005	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.131	0.177	0.03	0.004	0.002
	c3	0	0.001	0.015	0.126	0.071	0.008	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.034	0.115	0.04	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.022	0.006
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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