Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.41   0.73   36054 5605 30354 95
Day 1 forecast -0.41   0.73   36054 5707 30250 97
Day 4 forecast -0.42   0.74   36054 5821 30136 97
Day 7 forecast -0.4   0.73   36054 5590 30369 95
Day 10 forecast -0.4   0.74   36054 5933 30021 100

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.016 0.183 0.093 0.017 0.003 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.095 0.127 0.021 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.006 0.108 0.087 0.021 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.032 0.111 0.028 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.011 0.014 0.004
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.016 0.179 0.091 0.018 0.003 0.006
c2 0 0.003 0.099 0.128 0.022 0.003 0.001
c3 0 0 0.006 0.104 0.087 0.024 0.004
c4 0 0 0.002 0.036 0.109 0.025 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.012 0.014 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.015 0.168 0.086 0.017 0.003 0.006
c2 0 0.004 0.11 0.131 0.025 0.005 0.001
c3 0 0 0.006 0.098 0.083 0.023 0.004
c4 0 0 0.003 0.045 0.111 0.024 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.012 0.013 0.003
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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