Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-01-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.41	0.73	36054	5605	30354	95
Day 1 forecast	-0.41	0.73	36054	5707	30250	97
Day 4 forecast	-0.42	0.74	36054	5821	30136	97
Day 7 forecast	-0.4	0.73	36054	5590	30369	95
Day 10 forecast	-0.4	0.74	36054	5933	30021	100

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.016	0.183	0.093	0.017	0.003	0.006
	c2	0	0.003	0.095	0.127	0.021	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.108	0.087	0.021	0.003
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.032	0.111	0.028	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.011	0.014	0.004
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.016	0.179	0.091	0.018	0.003	0.006
	c2	0	0.003	0.099	0.128	0.022	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.104	0.087	0.024	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.036	0.109	0.025	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.014	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.015	0.168	0.086	0.017	0.003	0.006
	c2	0	0.004	0.11	0.131	0.025	0.005	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.098	0.083	0.023	0.004
	c4	0	0	0.003	0.045	0.111	0.024	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0.002	0.012	0.013	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri Jan 29 01:11:24 UTC 2021 on arcmfcval