Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-11-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.42	0.66	26130	6374	19683	73
Day 1 forecast	-0.45	0.68	26130	6638	19426	66
Day 4 forecast	-0.46	0.69	26130	6842	19226	62
Day 7 forecast	-0.45	0.67	26130	6513	19542	75
Day 10 forecast	-0.51	0.72	26130	7685	18394	51

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.075	0.227	0.074	0.013	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.078	0.091	0.012	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.013	0.149	0.099	0.004	0
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.037	0.103	0.011	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.075	0.234	0.078	0.013	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.072	0.099	0.016	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.012	0.142	0.104	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.032	0.093	0.011	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.075	0.235	0.077	0.014	0.002	0.003
	c2	0	0.002	0.07	0.106	0.017	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0.001	0.012	0.135	0.103	0.004	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.032	0.092	0.011	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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